Banks: 33 billion in ‘flat’ profits to cover new levy, but there is already a burden of 10.2 billion – FOCUS
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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The total bank profits – from which the government, according to Deputy Prime Minister Salvini’s proposal, could draw to calculate the banks’ potential contribution to the forthcoming budget: the 5 per cent proposed by the minister would bring at least 1.5 billion into the public coffers in a single year, on top of the already hefty 10.2 billion over three years presented by Palazzo Chigi to the banks in the 2026 Budget Law.
Ranking the top 10 Italian banks by assets, based on figures published in their financial statements, reveals aggregate net profits of €32.8 billion for 2025 – a figure that is expected to be exceeded in the current financial year. A recent report by Barclays, following the half-yearly results, already puts the 2026 total at around 30 billion, based solely on estimates for the top five banks. Based on the initiative that the Lega intends to put before the government majority, the institutions set to fall under the scope of the new levy – using the asset criterion – would include, in order of size: Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit, Monte dei Paschi, BPM, BPER, ICCREA, BNL, Cassa Centrale Banca, Crédit Agricole Italia and Banca Mediolanum; however, it may be necessary to clarify whether the scope of the levy covers, for example, only profits generated in Italia and only profits from banking activities. According to Salvini’s proposal, the levy would apply for three years.
As mentioned, institutions are already coming to terms with the provisions of the latest Budget Law, which will have an impact of 10.2 billion over three years, including advance payments of 4.2 billion. That budget measure led to a two-percentage-point increase in IRAP for three years, with an exemption threshold of 90,000 euros in 2027 and 2028, the deferral of DTAs and the option to distribute reserves from extraordinary profits subject to the payment of an extraordinary levy – a choice already made by all institutions this year. Other measures include the deferral until 2027 and 2028 of the deductibility for IRES and IRAP purposes of a portion of past write-downs on receivables, as well as a review of the deductibility of value adjustments on receivables. According to an analysis by the CPI Observatory, the restructuring of DTAs alone drained liquidity from the banking sector by 2.5 billion last year and by 1.5 billion this year, and this will be gradually recovered from 2027 through to 2029. The total cost of this restructuring of DTAs is estimated at between 300 and 350 million.
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