Banks are riding the wave of ‘Risiko’ and quarterly results. UniCredit stands out

 (Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The banking sector remains in the spotlight on the Milan Stock Exchange, where investors are coming to terms with the fallout from the banking crisis and with the record quarterly results from Unicredit . Shares in the bank based in Piazza Gae Aulenti are among the best performers, after the quarterly results enabled the bank to revise its guidance for the whole of 2026 upwards and may receive a further boost from the integration of Commerzbank, which could take place sooner than expected.

“We continue to regard UniCredit as offering the most attractive combination of best-in-class profitability, industry-leading dividend payouts and further growth momentum from Commerzbank,” commented analysts at Intermonte, who confirmed their ‘outperform’ recommendation whilst raising the target price to €108 from the previous €103. Barclays’ analysts have also set a three-figure target price (€106.3), having revised their earnings per share forecasts upwards for the coming years. CEO Andrea Orcel emphasised that he does not foresee any major new M&A deals after Commerzbank, explaining that he sees the Italian market as an opportunity to accelerate stand-alone growth and gain market share.

Domestic consolidation now involves ‘six of the top seven banks’ following Credit Agricole’s move, which has proposed to Banco Bpm a ‘friendly’ merger of their Italian operations. “The proposal would have a clear industrial rationale and offer significant value for Banco Bpm shareholders, although the legal structure, the contribution of the insurance business, the timing of the special dividend and the new entity’s dividend policy remain to be clarified,” commented Intermonte. The main sticking points also remain the government’s position on the ‘golden power’, whilst opponents claim that the government’s recent ‘no’ to the merger with UniCredit contributed to Banco Bpm ending up in French hands, and the forthcoming shareholders’ meeting vote: Agricole’s proposal requires a majority vote in favour from the other shareholders for the deal to go ahead without triggering a mandatory takeover bid. On Thursday, Banco Bpm’s board of directors will carry out an initial assessment. Meanwhile, the launch of the takeover bid by Intesa Sanpaolo for Banca Monte Paschi Siena following Consob’s approval for the publication of the prospectus: the transaction will be launched on the market on 24 November.