Bayer shares surge in Frankfurt following its quarterly results and the upward revision of its 2026 forecasts

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Bayer is soaring on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, buoyed by an upward revision to its full-year profit forecasts, following better-than-expected quarterly results, albeit still in the red. Since the start of the year, the share price has risen by over 42 per cent. In the third quarter, the Bayer Group benefited from the recovery of its pharmaceuticals division, thanks to strong demand for its key medicines, which offset market pressures on the agricultural division and the Consumer Health segment. Overall, the group recorded turnover of €10.05 billion for the quarter, up 4.1 per cent year-on-year, exceeding analysts’ expectations of €9.93 billion.

Sales in the Pharmaceuticals sector (prescription medicines) rose by 8 per cent to €4.7 billion on a reported basis. Growth was driven by the oncology drug Nubeqa and Kerendia, for the treatment of chronic kidney disease and heart failure, with sales up by 58.3 per cent and 64.9 per cent respectively (excluding currency and portfolio effects). “Thanks to these results, sales of Nubeqa reached around one billion euros in the third quarter alone, whilst Kerendia achieved blockbuster status by exceeding the one-billion-euro threshold in the 12 months from 1 October 2025,” the company states. The quarterly net loss narrowed to 672 million euros from a loss of 963 million euros last year and was affected by write-downs and legal costs. Excluding non-recurring items, EBITDA rose by 6.9 per cent to 1.6 billion euros. For the Pharmaceuticals division, adjusted EBITDA jumped by 23.6 per cent to €1.29 billion, with the margin rising by 3.5 percentage points to 27.6 per cent. “Bayer is operationally on track to meet its annual targets just nine months into the year, whilst aiming to capitalise on positive trends as the year draws to a close,” the German group stated in a press release. “We have reached a turning point in the growth trajectory of the pharmaceuticals sector and are beginning to see the benefits,” said Chief Executive Bill Anderson when presenting the quarterly results.

For the full year, Bayer now expects sales growth ‘at the upper end of the forecast range for the Pharmaceuticals division. “Meanwhile, the Crop Science and Consumer Health divisions are performing in line with their targets, despite facing market pressures,” the company added. Against this backdrop, Bayer has revised upwards its forecasts for the Pharmaceuticals division’s margin, as well as for the Group’s EBITDA before exceptional items, free cash flow and net financial debt. The German group stated that it now expects the Pharmaceuticals division’s EBITDA margin, excluding non-recurring items, to be between 25 per cent and 27 per cent (compared with the previous forecast of 23–25 per cent). Consequently, it now expects Group EBITDA, excluding non-recurring items, to be between €9.8 and €10.3 billion, net of currency effects (previously €9.6–10.1 billion). The company has also revised its forecast for free cash flow, raising the forecast range by €1 billion to between -€1.5 billion and -€0.5 billion (previous forecast: between -€2.5 billion and -€1.5 billion). In this regard, Bayer now expects net financial debt at the end of the year to be lower than previously forecast, with an updated range of between 28 and 29 billion euros (down from 29–30 billion euros).

In an initial commentary, JP Morgan analysts predicted a positive reaction to the share price. “Overall, we expect the results to be well received, given that EBITDA exceeded forecasts, driven by the pharmaceuticals sector, and the upward revision of forecasts,” note analysts at JP Morgan. Experts at Raiffeisen Research, for their part, highlight that a strong pharmaceuticals division gave Bayer a boost in the third quarter, with sales and EBITDA exceeding expectations and forecasts for 2026 having been revised upwards. The market also reacted positively to the legal updates regarding the long-running Roundup herbicide case, after the company secured a verdict in its favour last week in the first glyphosate case to go to trial following the US Supreme Court’s ruling. Anderson sees this as a strong sign of the progress Bayer has made in managing the litigation. “The fact that all 12 jurors sided with the company should serve as a useful indicator for those considering legal action. We will continue to manage the cases in the company’s best interests and are awaiting an important decision on the class-action settlement,” said the CEO.