Bayesian, the new hypothesis: water infiltration before the storm

International espionage, conspiracy theories, secret services, and even an alleged curse after the death of the Dutch diver found in the wreck's wreckage. Around the sinking of the Bayesian the most disparate narratives have been intertwined, fuelled by the very high profile of the people involved, first and foremost that of Mike Lynch, a leading British hi-tech entrepreneur. Making the episode even more enigmatic is the shipwreck of what was supposed to be a hi-tech vessel, considered virtually unsinkable. However, the latest investigative trail points to a far more ordinary cause.

According to the hypothesis currently under investigation, the yacht would have suffered a malfunction before reaching the Porticello roadstead, where it sank with seven people on board on 19 August. This malfunction would have allowed water to enter one of the ship's compartments - perhaps the engine room or one of the adjoining aft rooms. In this scenario, the violent storm that raged that night would have contributed to the disaster, but would not have been its main cause.

Supporting this reconstruction are a number of clues that have emerged from the investigation, including one in particular that the experts consider significant: a shatterproof glass pane, located between the engine room and the control room, appears cracked. In a video taken by divers inside the wreck, the glass appears cracked in several places and curved towards the control room, but not shattered. For the investigators, this detail suggests that the hydrostatic pressure - i.e. the thrust exerted by the water - started in the engine room, which would have flooded before the other compartments.

No object was found that could have impacted the glass, and the watertight door connecting to the control room was found to be closed. However, there remains another possible access route, which is also watertight: was it open at the time of the impact with the water? Investigations so far indicate that all hatches were sealed, and the hull appears intact. No malfunctions were found even on the canting keel, which has been under observation in the past. However, the right side of the hull, lying on the seabed, has not yet been inspected. Only after the recovery of the wreck, which is not expected until 25 May at the earliest, will it be possible to check whether there are any hidden cracks or structural damage. In the absence of external injuries, it is assumed that there is internal failure of some mechanical component: the propeller shafts? The sea intakes?

A further element under scrutiny is the vessel's mast, a full 72 metres high - among the tallest ever installed on a yacht. On the night of the shipwreck it was lit up, but during the storm it suddenly went out, although it was still standing for several minutes. According to investigators, this could have been caused by the blockage of the generator located in the engine room. Moreover, witnesses report that the mast, even before the storm, seemed to be leaning abnormally despite the absence of wind. A detail that opens up new questions.