Letter to the Saver

Berkshire Hathaway: how Warren Buffet's money factory works

Booming profits from policies. Higher margins from Treasury investments and capital gains in equities. Recession risk on group's cyclical business

by Vittorio Carlini

 Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg Bloomberg

6' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

6' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

On the one hand, the note - particularly for the media focus - cash and cash equivalents. On the other, the fact that the driving force behind profitability is the insurance business. All this with the stock on the stock exchange, which - so far - has withstood the recent Wall Street thud rather well. This is how one can take a snapshot of the state of the art of Berkshire Hathaway, the honding created by one of the biggest US investors: Warren Buffet.

P&L account data

The conglomerate just recently published the figures for the whole of 2024. As is always the case, among the many tables there is one that is more interesting than the others. In this case it is the breakdown - by division - of the so-called Operating earnings. That is to say: the operating profitability after depreciation, amortisation and taxes (not including, therefore, financial investments and interest expenses) recognised to the company's shares. Well: from the graph it emerges that the largest contribution to profits - beyond investment activity (see box below the graphs) - comes from the insurance sector, whose operating earnings settled at USD 9.02 billion (+66.17%). The increase is the consequence - in particular - of the growth in Geico's profitability. The latter reached 7.81 billion in so-called underwriting profit. That is: the difference between insurance premiums collected and costs incurred to pay claims and operating expenses. The result was achieved in what way? The US auto insurance company first took advantage of rate increases that led to a 7.8% rise in the average premium per policy. In addition, business was helped by a reduction in the frequency of claims. Lastly, not forgetting the increase in operational efficiency, which implied a reduction in costs.

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REDDITIVITÀ

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The World of Reinsurance

The reinsurance business itself also helped. Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group recorded - also in 2024 - 2.73 billion in underwriting profits (it had been 1.9 billion two years ago). Here - among other things - the division was buoyed by a decline in liabilities on past claims and an improvement - in non-life business - in the loss ratio. By contrast, the performance of Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group was not positive. The latter - to which a number of independently managed insurance companies active mainly in the US are attributed - posted underwriting profits of € 855m. The figure, which represents a 35.4% drop from the $1.37bn realised in 2023, is the result of a mix of factors. Among others: the rise (+12.8%) in loss and loss adjustment expenses and the impact of catastrophe claims.

OPERATING EARNINGS

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Tornadoes

Yes, catastrophic events. The latter, across the holding company's insurance sector, affected the accounts. The total losses, in 2024, were around more than 1 billion. These were losses (not in the technical sense) due - above all - to extreme events such as hurricanes Milton and Helene. Nevertheless, such facts - together with the increase in the average severity of claims in 2024 compared to 2023 - were more than counterbalanced by the overall strength of the business. Above all, at Geico. Hence the expansion of the profitability of the insurance sector in general, which also helped to support the share price on the stock exchange.

Rail transport

But it is not just a matter of policies. Another important part of Berkshire Hathaway's business is rail transport. The holding company owns Bnfs Railway. On this front the trend in profitability has not been positive: operating earnings have fallen by 1.1%. Why? The answer is articulated. The experts point out that - despite the increase in volumes handled - there has been a drop in tariff revenue (price paid for the transport of products) in the wake of a twofold factor. The first is the lower fuel surcharges applied to customers/users. The second is the change in the mix of goods transported: the demand for coal, which - in the rail business - guarantees higher margins, has plummeted in the face of the increased use of gas. Not only that. Profitability was also squeezed by the renewal of the collective labour agreement, which resulted in higher operating costs. In such a scenario Bnfs' profitability slowed down.

COSTI E ONERI

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L’energia

On the other hand, the margins of the other large single area of business (beyond Other controlled business, which boasts - again in 2024 - 13.072 billion operating earnings) are on the rise. This is Berkshire Hathaway Energy. The division has various activities: from electricity supply (PacifiCorp and MidAmerican Energy) to gas transport (Northern Natural Gas and Bhe Pipeline Group) to renewables (Bhe Renewable). Well, the sector took home 3.73 billion Operating earnings (+60%) last year. The result, on closer inspection, is the effect of the good trend in electricity consumption and the rise in tariffs, to which must be added the growth in the gas sector (+14.5% operating profit) and the improved performance of Norther Powergrid in Great Britain. Negative impact, on the contrary, from interest expenses on debt. The subsidiaries in the sector issued bonds to finance growth and modernisation of infrastructure, which - in the wake of higher market rates - led to an increase in financial expenses.

The Outlook

So far, some suggestions on the performance in 2024 of Berkshire Hathaway's main sectors. What, however, are their prospects? Several experts point to the fact that the future of the insurance business - given also the turnaround of Geico - is positive. Some doubts, however, involve the cyclical business. An example? Rail transport. This benefits from the growth of the US real economy. Well: just recently, in America, various Pmi indices (e.g. the February manufacturing Ism) were published that came in below estimates. Of course: we are still above the 50 threshold that separates growth from economic contraction. Moreover, these are merely forecast indicators. Having said that, however, there is a risk that the tariffs battle waged by Donald Trump will trigger - in addition to a pick-up in inflation - a slowdown in the US economy. This would negatively affect the cyclical part of Bershire Hathaway's business, such as rail transport. Overall, the consensus reported by the Bloomberg terminal regarding the adjusted EPS of the entire holding company indicates a slowdown (-7.7%) in the full year 2025 compared to 2024.

Liquidity

From future profitability to liquidity. Berkshire Hathaway's is currently at 'monstrous' levels. As of 31 December, it was $334 billion (it was $325 billion as of 30/9/2024). Of this, $44.33 billion consists of actual cash (cash and deposits); the remainder is represented by short-term US government bonds ($286.47 billion) and other liquid investments. On closer inspection, the accounting entry - which has had to be changed since the end of December due to Buffett's most recent moves - has also reached similar levels due to the disposals of major shares in companies such as Apple or Bank of America. The strategy (apart from increasing equity positions in several Japanese conglomerates) has become a subject of debate among traders. In particular, the holding company - before the recent Wall Street retracement - was accused by several experts of missing market rally opportunities. In reality, Barron's reminds us, the very Wall Street retracement puts Berkshire Hathaway in the best position for possible purchases. Although, it is the indication of many, it may take a bigger drop - with the S&P 500 reaching multiples below current multiples (the Shiller P/e ratio is just over 35 times) - in order to convince the Oracle of Omaha to make a major move in Wall Street equity again.

Financial solidity

But it is not just a question of equity. It is also about the financial strength conferred on the company by liquidity. True! The latter, through its investment in Treasury Bills with maturities of up to 12 months, contributed strongly to the profitability of 2024. And, however, the high level of liquidity is - according to several analysts - also a guarantee for the holding company's operational business. An example? The insurance world and the danger of major catastrophic events. Of course! The overall availability cannot be directly utilised to cover possible losses. And yet Warren himself has indicated how financial strength is a guarantee for the policy business. In such a context what, then, is the status of the company on the stock exchange, which - it should be remembered - has two types of shares (A and B) listed? Here it can be noted that the 'Price to book value' on 2025, according to the Bloomberg terminal, is 1.63 times. That is: the highest figure since 2012.

FLUSSI DI CASSA

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