The US-EU trade war

Berni (Grana Padano): '30% tariffs? An assist to Wisconsin producers'

For the director of the protection consortium, his companies risk 75-80 million euro damage per year

by Micaela Cappellini

3' min read

3' min read

Grana Padano, the world's most exported PDO cheese, would suffer an economic loss of between 75 and 80 million euro per year with the American tariffs at 30%. These are rough calculations, made in a hurry in the aftermath of Trump's announcement last Saturday, "because no one, not even in the worst case scenario, expected increases of this magnitude," admits Stefano Berni, director general of the Consortium for the Protection of Grana Padano, a Made in Italy champion with 4 billion euros in production, 142 companies and more than 220,000 wheels sold in the US in 2024.

He was among the harshest to comment on Trump's announcement on Saturday, calling it an 'act of war', and said that with tariffs at 30%, a kilo of Grana Padano in the US will come to cost $50....

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A nice assist, for Wisconsin cheese makers, who are in fact all Trumpians. Already today American grana, or parmesan, cost half as much as Italian PDO cheeses. With tariffs at 30% and $50 per kilo, I expect that American consumers, who used to buy three pieces of Grana, will end up buying only two and for the third they will look to US-made products, thus saving $20 per kilo.

How much does it cost today to buy Grana Padano in the US?

We are already at $40 per kilo. Let's be clear: Grana Padano, like Parmigiano Reggiano, has always paid a 15% tariffs on the American market. At the beginning of his presidency, Trump said that he would put a 20% tariffs on it, which added to the historical 15% would have meant arriving at 35%, then he returned to milder counsels and only applied 10%. As of today, therefore, Grana Padano is sold in the USA with a 25% tariffs and this is how it will be until 1 August.

What losses do you estimate for the companies in the consortium if the negotiations between the US and the EU do not lower the percentages announced by Trump?

Our exports to the US will drop by 20%. That means 40,000 fewer wheels per year. The US is now the third largest market in the world for us, behind Germany and France.

How much does this mean in terms of turnover?

History gives us the measure. When Russia invaded Crimea, the EU imposed sanctions on Moscow, which in turn decreed an embargo on a number of European products, including cheese. In August 2014, overnight, we stopped exporting around 50,000 wheels of Grana cheese per year. Between direct and indirect damage, related to the burdening of warehouses, it cost us 100 million euros in one year. Based on this experience, I believe that American tariffs at 30% would cost us 75-80 million euros per year.

What countermeasures can you take? Are you accelerating stockpiling?

Between sending it off and landing it, it takes 40 days to ship a wheel of Grana cheese to the US. And nobody had organised in time to increase supplies to the US, simply because nobody expected 30% additional tariffs. The most pessimistic speculated 17% at most. I hope that we will close the gap in the middle, i.e. at 15%, which for us means 30%. To date, despite the 25% tariffs (15+10), the data tell us that we are still growing in the US market. Let's say that with 15+15 we can equip ourselves, but 45% is beyond our capacity to absorb.

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