Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin is worth more than Visa and MasterCard combined. All cryptocurrency records

Breached the 1.3 trillion capitalisation barrier. The euro record was also broken: Bitcoin had never exceeded EUR 60,000. Driven by booming demand for new ETFs and the halving (which is just around the corner) demand for cryptocurrency is pushing the price to unexplored thresholds

by Vito Lops

 Bitcoin. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

3' min read

3' min read

Never so high. Bitcoin's capitalisation exceeded $1.3 trillion. The barrier of the previous high at 1,270 billion was broken. It is now worth more than Visa and MasterCard, which together reach 1 trillion.

The price in greenbacks came close to $67,000, one step (3%) away from the all-time high of 69,500 in November 2021. Even for a European investor the session of Monday 4 March enters the Guinness Book of Records. Because the price exceeded 60,000 for the first time. This means that all those who bought the cryptocurrency (even at the worst time, i.e. at the end of 2021, exposing themselves to a 70% correction the following year) and did not sell in the meantime, have since 4 March returned to profit.Never so high.

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The halving effect

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The string of firsts continues by resorting to statistics. Prior to this cycle, never had the price of Bitcoin updated its highs before halving, that protocol mechanism whereby every four years the number of Bitcoins issued is halved. In previous cycles the real bull run occurred in the 12-18 months following halving. This time around, the pre-halving phase is proving to be stronger than expected with the price showing no sign of stopping.

Another record: this is the seventh consecutive month of upward movement. Should March end with a 'green candle', this record would also have to be updated. The pre-halving phases have always been characterised by an acceleration but also by a correction. We will see if the market will respect this metric.

The halving is now just over a month away: the currently scheduled date (but subject to change depending on how the network works) is 19 April. Another record: MicroStrategy, the company led by the maximalist Michael Saylor, which with an accumulation plan has 193 thousand Bitcoins in its treasury for a value close to 13 billion, would be eligible, in terms of capitalisation, in the S&P 500 index, thanks to this jump in price. Should it be eligible, it would mean that Bitcoin's performance would in part influence the performance of the Wall Street index.

L'Etf su Bitcoin è più importante dell'halving?

The arrival of the Etf spot

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This cycle therefore seems a bit out of step with the previous three (Bitcoin is 15 years old, so we are in the fourth four-year cycle). In fact, there is something different this time around. And it is called an Etf. Since 11 January, 10 passive funds that replicate the price of cryptocurrency have landed on Wall Street, with very low fees (0.3% per annum on average). They relieve investors of the thorny issue of custody (those who invest directly in Bitcoin are responsible for the good and the bad of their assets, if they lose their private key they cannot contact any client office) and taxation. The first balance of these products (with BlackRock and Fidelity in the front row) is higher than expected. Net flows exceeded 7.5 billion. And they would have been much larger if in the meantime there had not been 8 billion outflows from GrayScale, whose transition from trust to ETF allowed many investors stranded in the previous 'bear market' to liquidate their positions. BlackRock alone raised over 10 billion in just over a month. If investor demand increases, issuers must buy Bitcoin to keep collateral constant. Purchases mostly take place 'over the counter' (i.e. not on the open market). But some data indicate that Bitcoins available on the 'Otc' circuit are falling sharply, precisely because of the new demand coming from the Etf. Some speculate that a 'supply shock' is underway, a shortage of supply in the face of growing demand. From the 'Etf world' alone, a daily demand of 10-12 times more than the 900 Bitcoins mined each day has arrived in recent days. This number will halve to 450 after halving. These dynamics, totally related to the new balance between supply and demand that the cryptocurrency is seeking, are inexorably influencing the price.

The rarefied air

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However, great care must be taken. Fomo (fear of missing out), fear of missing the train, can be triggered in these phases. Continuous rises can push even unsuspecting investors, who may not have even studied the whys and wherefores of Bitcoin technology, simply attracted by the price. When investing, and this rule applies as much to a BTp as to a Bitcoin, one must know the instrument one intends to put in one's portfolio. Aware that when you go too high, the air becomes thin. The market has never 'worked' prices so high. The volumes of the past are missing. The references. In this sense, a new game has begun for Bitcoin as of yesterday.

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