BlackRock: Insurance – a 24 trillion boost for AI and private markets
Concerns about the state of the global economy and a long-feared recession – which now seems to be fading from view – are waning, whilst there is a growing commitment to private markets and the adoption of artificial intelligence solutions. The portfolio choices of major insurance groups, as captured in BlackRock’s fifteenth annual global survey of the sector, reflect an attitude characterised by a decidedly high level of confidence. At the same time, these companies have not lost their traditional prudence and discipline, and continue to regard selectivity as a fundamental criterion underpinning their investment decision-making processes.
The survey, carried out amongst 463 firms operating in 31 different markets and managing total assets in excess of 24,000 billion dollars, highlights first and foremost that, in economic terms, concerns about a recession have almost halved, falling to 18 per cent in 2026 from 35 per cent the previous year. Inflation, however, remains the main macroeconomic concern for 62 per cent of insurers, followed by geopolitical tensions (45 per cent) and the prospect of prolonged high interest rates (44 per cent).
Overall, according to BlackRock, 61 per cent of global insurers expect a soft landing scenario, although regional outlooks show marked differences. Confidence in a soft landing for the economy stands at 75% in the EMEA region, compared with 63% in North America, 47% in Asia-Pacific and 40% in Latin America. Against this backdrop, the overall appetite for investment risk remains stable for 82% of companies. Within this group, 57 per cent state that they do not see sufficient opportunities to justify taking on more risk (a figure up by 22 percentage points compared with 2025), whilst 50 per cent are aiming for greater diversification within their existing risk budget.
The ‘private’ opportunity
Looking more specifically at investment choices, the most interesting finding undoubtedly concerns developments in the private markets, which appear to have completed their transition from alternative sources of return to structural and indispensable components of insurance portfolios. The BlackRock survey shows, in fact, that more than 9 out of 10 companies (92 per cent) allocate at least 5 per cent of their portfolio to private assets, with this figure exceeding 15 per cent for more than 40 per cent of them.
Although the rate of growth in allocations shows a natural stabilisation compared with the historic peaks of the previous three-year period (94 per cent in 2025, 91 per cent in 2024 and 89 per cent in 2023), as many as 76 per cent of respondents expect to further increase their exposure to private markets in 2026, whilst the remaining 24 per cent intend to keep it unchanged. Demand remains particularly strong for private debt, cited by 41 per cent of the sample as the priority area for future increases, followed by direct lending (40 per cent), investment-grade private placements (39 per cent) and residential mortgage loans (38 per cent).
