Blitz on manoeuvre, Irpef cuts confirmed. From banks 3-4 billion in two years

The manoeuvre accelerates, and lands this evening on the table of the council of ministers together with the programmatic budget document (PDB) to be sent to Brussels and the connected decree to complete the coverage system. The change of pace, desired by Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti in order to respect the official calendar of the budget session, aims to put some firm points around a construction site in which the variables, however, continue to be many. The confrontation with the banks is underway and will go on to the bitter end, the Ministry of the Economy explained yesterday evening, adding that the interventions in favour of low-middle incomes and families with children have been confirmed. In this design, there are no tax increases for people and companies, because revenues needed to complete the coverage will come mainly from cuts and rationalisation of expenditure. Around this scenario, however, the parties are agitating their demands, starting with Forza Italia, which yesterday, in a summit with vice-premier Antonio Tajani, went back to pushing for a cut of another two points, from 35 to 33%, of the Irpef rate on incomes in the second bracket, those ranging from 28,000 to 50,000 euro gross.

The hours leading up to this evening's council of ministers, in short, promise to be intense. With the banks, work is being done on deferred taxes, for which a double intervention is looming. The deductibility for both 2025 and 2026 will be postponed, and the recovery path will not come immediately in the following two years. The mechanism under consideration envisages a recovery of the non-deducted portions deferred over time. The aim is to avoid that the increased revenue, which will result from the broadening of the tax base, will result in an immediate reduction as of 2027. This is why a softer return system would still safeguard deductibility, but without an excessive burden on subsequent public finance balances.

But the intervention on banks could also extend to an increase in taxation on stock options granted as an element of extra remuneration for managers in the sector. A measure on which an opening has also arrived from Forza Italia through the vice-president of the Azzurri senators, Maurizio Gasparri: 'We can reason on the taxation of bankers' stock options, but not on that of banks, which already pay an additional 4 per cent'. While a further dossier on the funds used to strengthen bank assets remains open on the government's tables.

The other hot area is personal taxation. For the time being, the government is only talking about confirming support for low and medium incomes. On cutting the tax wedge, work is underway to divide the burden between tax and contributions (Sole 24 Ore of last Saturday), with a hypothesis that broadens the benefits a little by limiting the scale that today makes all benefits fall to 35 thousand euro with the introduction of a decalage from 35 to 40 thousand. But the ambitions of the majority are more intense, and aim to include a further tax reduction with a rate of 33% instead of 35% for incomes in the second bracket. It will be seen. The tax reduction compared to the tendential (which, being at current legislation, does not contemplate either the cut in the wedge or the three-rate Irpef) should be around 16 billion overall, bringing the tax burden to 42.1% and thus two decimals below this year's levels. Figures indicated yesterday to SkyTg24 Economy by Marco Osnato (FdI), chairman of the Finance Committee of Montecitorio, to dismiss the controversy over 'tax increases' that actually arose from the reading of the tendential framework of the budget plan, the one built precisely net of the manoeuvre. With this dynamic, therefore, there is room to go beyond the replication of the system started this year, in a scenario that must, however, also contemplate the increase in tax rebates for child-related expenses, such as education and sports.

On health, the fixed point seems to be represented by a planned level of expenditure of 6.3 per cent of GDP. The objective, with a trend that already foresees in 2025 an expenditure of 4 billion above this year's levels according to the structural budget plan, seems attainable with the additional 1.2-1.3 billion that emerged in the discussions in recent weeks between the Government and the Regions, in a perspective that then foresees another extra step around 2 billion for 2026. Yesterday, however, more generous figures were circulating, up to 3-3.2 billion.