Bmw plummets on the stock exchange after estimate cut: China weighed, Mercedes also down

Germany is looking with some apprehension at the health of the automotive industry, the backbone of its industry. While production fell by 4.3% overall in August on a monthly basis, the worst figure since 2022, the car sector slumped by 18.5%, according to Destatis, Germany's Istatis. Tariffs, high energy prices and Chinese competition continue to weigh down the European locomotive, and the car sector, the historical export engine, is struggling to regain traction.

In this context, Bmw's stock market slump takes on symbolic value. Yesterday, the Bavarian group's share lost 8.25 per cent to EUR 80.2, returning to the levels of the beginning of the year. On Tuesday, with the markets closed, the Munich-based group cut its 2025 profit estimates due to weak demand in China and delays in customs reimbursements linked to trade tensions between the US and Europe. The Bavarian manufacturer now expects a slight drop in pre-tax profit. Bmw has reduced the operating margin of its car division to 5-6 per cent (from 5-7 per cent) and free cash flow to EUR 2.5 billion, which has practically halved.

The most worrying signal comes from Beijing. After years of double-digit growth, the Chinese market is showing a clear slowdown: sales are below expectations (-0.4%), margins are eroded, even with the increase in volumes in Europe and the U.S. And this despite the fact that the electrical strategy is expanding strongly, with growing sales and technological innovations such as the new Neue Klasse platform, due in 2026. JPMorgan emphasises that "more than tariffs, the ability to maintain pricing power and competitiveness in China in 2026 will be the most important factor". Ubs and Citi point to the group's overexposure to the Asian market, which last year accounted for more than a fifth of revenues.

Un effetto contagio, ieri, si è avvertito sull’intero comparto auto: l’indice Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts ha perso circa il 2,28%. Ha fatto anche peggio l’altro gruppo premium tedesco, Mercedes-Benz, che ha ceduto il 2,92%, penalizzato dai dati del terzo trimestre. Le vendite globali del gruppo di Stoccarda sono scese del 12%, con un tonfo del 27% in Cina e del 17% negli Stati Uniti, i mercati più critici. A limitare i danni la crescita del 2% in Europa e del 12% in Sud America. Confrontando i primi nove mesi con l’analogo periodo del 2024, il calo è del 9%, a 1,6 milioni di unità. I modelli di fascia alta – Maybach, AMG e Classe S – restano stabili, mentre i segmenti medi e di ingresso mostrano cali a doppia cifra. Le vendite di elettriche pure (Bev) sono rimaste ferme a 42.600 unità, mentre gli ibridi plug-in sono cresciuti del 10%.

Mercedes is responding to the non-European weakness with a restructuring of production that shifts part of the manufacturing to Hungary. The goal, as part of the 'Next Level Performance' plan presented in February, is to reduce costs by 10 per cent and save five billion euros a year by 2027. A second level of restructuring involves the incorporation of Mercedes-Benz Mobility, which handles financing, leasing and insurance, as well as payment services and charging solutions, as of 31 December. Stuttgart justifies the move with the desire to 'improve efficiency, exploit synergies and create the basis for further harmonisation of systems'.