Markets

Stock market: Europe tries to rally and awaits the ECB. Milan held back by the banks

The Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, as expected, with all eyes on the US PCE and GDP. Google and Samsung’s results disappoint, whilst Microsoft is in the spotlight. Tensions remain high in the Middle East, but oil and gas prices are cooling. On the Milan Stock Exchange, Campari takes a sharp tumble, whilst banks are weighed down by the cost of the budget measures approved by the Government

 REUTERS

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - They are moving in a haphazard manner European stock markets are trading in a mixed fashion, as they grapple with geopolitical tensions and statements uncompromising statements by Donald Trump in the midst of the election campaign, the flurry of quarterly results – starting with the highly anticipated and mixed reports from Google and Microsoft, as well as Samsung – and the decisions by central banks. Today, the floor is given to the European Central Bank, after the Federal Reserve, as expected, left interest rates unchanged in the 3.75–4 per cent range: the US economy is solid and the only concern is inflation, according to central bankers, who will be closely monitoring the PCE inflation figure today, which is forecast to rise from 3.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent. There is also anticipation for the preliminary US GDP figure, which is estimated to have risen sharply from 2.2 per cent to 3.2 per cent. The market is pricing in an 80 per cent probability of a further rate hike in December.

In Milan, the FTSE MIB is grappling not only with quarterly results but also with the Government’s approval of the 26-billion budget, which presents a bill for the financial sector (banks and insurance companies) rising to 5.5–6 billion.

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Highs and lows for Microsoft and Google. Samsung disappoints

On the eve of the close, Wall Street finished just above the break-even point, buoyed in part by anticipation of the results from Alphabet and Microsoft. Mixed results, with Google disappointing analysts and the share price falling by as much as 10 per cent in after-hours trading. Revenue rose at the fastest rate since 2021, though it fell short of estimates, whilst net profit of $26.17 billion was down and below expectations. Free cash flow was negative and below expectations. Alphabet has, however, maintained its full-year capital expenditure forecast at over $200 billion, with the aim of reaching $300 billion by 2027.

On the other hand, the quarterly results from Microsoft Corp was well received, with solid figures exceeding expectations, driven by a 48 per cent growth in its Azure cloud infrastructure business. Microsoft’s revenue rose to $92.28 billion, exceeding estimates, confirming Azure as its core business. Net profit rose to $36.63 billion. In Asia, it was a day to forget for Samsung shares following the release of its results, despite the company posting a record quarter in terms of total operating profit thanks to AI chips. Weighing on the share price were net profit figures that fell short of the consensus and cash flow below estimates, as well as the lack of updates on the shareholder remuneration plan.

Prysmian and ST in the spotlight on the Milan Stock Exchange. Campari down

On the Milan Stock Exchange, as reported, Campari (after trading had also been suspended) following its quarterly results. Stmicroelectronics , after a shaky start, has begun to fall following the release of its results. Meanwhile, Prysmian is, on the other hand, rising, driven by its results and an upward revision of forecasts.

In the banking sector, all eyes are on Siena, where the annual general meeting of Banca Monte Paschi Siena but the sector as a whole is under pressure, with Banco Bpm posting the worst performance, whilst analysts are pondering the impact of the government’s budget measures on the major banks.

Oil and gas prices slow; limited movement in currency markets

Despite the high tensions in the Middle East and Trump’s inflammatory remarks, yet another attempt at negotiation by US Vice-President Vance – who has contacted senior Iranian official Mohsen Rezei – is helping to bring oil and gas prices under control, with Brent trading around the $114 mark and TTF gas falling below 100 euros per MWh.

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar remained largely unchanged following the Fed’s announcement, with the euro continuing to trade below $1.12.

Tokyo closes higher and awaits the BoJ; mixed performance across Asia

The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed higher, whilst other Asian markets saw a mixed session. The Nikkei index rose by 1.1% to 64,659.47 points, buoyed by AI-related shares, which offset the falls in video game-related shares and other technology stocks. Investors are also awaiting the decisions to be taken by the Bank of Japan at its next monetary policy meeting.

In Seoul, however, the main Kospi index fell by 1.24 per cent, dragged down by the slump in South Korean memory chip giant Samsung Electronics – one of the largest companies by market capitalisation – following results that fell short of expectations. Although the company saw its net profit in the third quarter increase sixfold compared with the previous year, driven by demand for semiconductors linked to the artificial intelligence boom, the figure still fell short of investors’ forecasts. The technology sector was also weighed down by Alphabet’s (Google) results.

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