Markets

Stock exchanges, confidence on Trump-Xi, Milan (+1.1%) from record high over 50,000 points

The tech sector is still in the spotlight after a new record high on the Nasdaq. Eyes on the Beijing talks, the war in Iran remains in the background, oil on the upswing. Stellantis and Stellantis do well in Milan, A2a flares up after accounts

by Chiara Di Michele and Ivan Torneo

I Mercati a metà seduta

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The Trump-Xi summit instilled a climate of greater confidence in the stock markets, which continued to make new records while keeping in the background the risks linked to the prolonging conflict between the US, Israel and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Piazza Affari closes one step away from the historical record of 6 March 2000 (50,109 points) at the height of the dot-com bubble. In fact, the index marked a +1.15% at 50,050

According to the White House, US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed on the need to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and on the fact that Iran cannot go nuclear. Beijing, however, is holding the line on Taiwan, saying that if not handled well, the issue could lead to conflict.

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The optimism about the prospects for artificial intelligence (on the eve of a new record for Nasdaq and S&P on Wall Street in the wake of the tech sector, with Nvidia continuing to update its highs and adding 100 billion in capitalisation in one session) pushes the stock markets up and puts the risk of an interest rate hike on the back burner, at least for the moment because of the energy shock. In the US, after the inflation numbers, the producer price reading also showed the effects of higher crude oil prices. Other indications came from import prices, which rose more than expected in April (+1.9% versus +0.9% expected). At this point, the market not only expects no cuts by the Fed this year, but is starting to bet on possible increases in the cost of money.

Markets look to Beijing and Taiwan's future

Investors are focused on the news coming from the summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, with the tycoon inviting China's president to the US on 24 September on the eve of the mid-term elections. At stake are not only tariffs and trade relations between the two superpowers, but also positions on the conflict with Iran andthe thorny topic of Taiwan, which in turn brings the semiconductor issue back to the fore. The island, according to industry estimates, produces around 90% of the world's most sophisticated semiconductors, with the colossus Tsmc based there. It is no coincidence that Trump is accompanied by a large delegation of ceos with number ones from the major AI giants, including Elon Musk and Tim Cook, and optimism about the industry on the eve of the event was heightened by the news that Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, also joined the US president on his trip to China.

On Wall Street the Dow Jones returns to 50,000 points with Cisco rally

Wall Street's major indices moved higher, with the Dow Jones back above 50,000 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite immediately updating their intraday highs, after a solid quarterly report from Cisco Systems. The software giant posted third quarter results and forecasts that exceeded market expectations and announced nearly 4,000 job cuts. Together with Cisco, Amazon and Nvidia are supporting the Dow Jones recovery: Cisco and Amazon are up 30% in the last two months, Nvidia has gained 25%. Honda Motor runs: the automotive giant posted its first annual loss in almost 70 years due to costs of USD 9 billion for the restructuring of its electric vehicle business. However, forecasts for the full year 2027 came in above expectations and the dividend was maintained.

In Milan St and Stellantis at the top, A2a sprint after the accounts

As for the stocks in Piazza Affari, purchases on the European tech sector (the best) reward Stmicroelectronics. which closed at the top. Stellantis follows after Chinese Byd's vice president, Stella Li, admitted interest in the European group's plants: a deal that analysts assess positively even if, they warn, it could put market shares at risk. A2a closed on the upside - up immediately after the publication of its quarterly report and the confirmation of guidance. Banks generally rose, led by Bper Banca , Unicredit andIntesa Sanpaolo .

Oil on a swing, Brent moves into the $105 area

Directionless ups and downs for the price of oil, which, however, does not record any aggressive rips. Brent is moving around 105 dollars per barrel, while Wti is close to 100 dollars. "At the moment the situation in oil is at a standstill, we need more violent movements that can actually move the situation on a weekly basis. We gravitate towards the highs of recent weeks," notes David Pascucci, market analyst at Xtb. Markets, meanwhile, are hoping that a "joint statement on the Hormuz issue may emerge from the talks between the US and China, given the diplomatic clout China may have vis-à-vis Iran," say analysts at Mps.

Euro/dollar in the 1.17 area. Yuan at three-year high against the dollar

Limited movement in the currency market, with the euro/dollar moving in the 1.17 area. the currency market is practically blocked, i.e. it hasn't been able to gain directionality for some time," said David Pascucci. "People try to sell the dollar, but the dollar/yen exchange rate, after the Bank of Japan's recent intervention, has in fact stopped taking direction, except with downward rips that are punctually reabsorbed. Otherwise, the euro/dollar and the sterling/dollar continue to remain relatively steady at the levels we have seen over the past few weeks.

Meanwhile, a three-year record for the yuan against the dollar. The Chinese currency, traded both onshore and offshore, reached its strongest levels in more than three years after the central bank raised its official benchmark rate. Since the beginning of the year, the yuan has strengthened by about 3 per cent against the greenback.

Spreads down, BTp yield down

Moving down the spread between the BTp and Bund, down from 75 basis points at the eve's close. The yield on the benchmark ten-year BTp also declined, down from 3.86% at the eve's close.

Long-term yields hit new post-conflict highs on the eve of the event (4.5% on Treasuries, 3.12% on Bunds) and moved slightly lower due to continued oil price tensions and after the well above expected US producer price figure. The move lost intensity and was partially retraced in the late afternoon, in conjunction with a drop in oil prices.

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