EU stock markets down as oil heads towards $100. Tim rebounds on news of Poste’s relaunch

On the Milan Stock Exchange, all eyes are on the takeover bid for Tim , which is topping the main index after the board of directors of Poste Italiane has increased the cash portion of the offer by 0.30 euros, bringing the total to 1.97 euros, plus 0.218 ordinary shares in Poste. Oil stocks were also up, once again following rises in crude oil prices: Eni, Saipem and Tenaris. The rally continues for Lottomatica Group continues its rally, riding the long wave of mega-merger with the Spanish firm Cirsa. On the banking front, a shareholders’ meeting is scheduled for Thursday at Intesa Sanpaolo is scheduled for Thursday, at which the shareholders will vote on the capital increase to fund the takeover bid for Banca Monte Paschi Siena, whose board of directors is meeting to co-opt Alessandro Caltagirone and Gianluca Brancadoro. Little change in Unicredit following the ECB’s authorisation of the Danish Compromise on insurance holdings, Generali included.

Down in the rankings Stellantis , Avio and the tech sector with Stmicroelectronics and Prysmian.

Yet another rise in the price of oil, with Brent crude appears to be heading towards $100 a barrel, following attacks by the Houthis in southern Saudi Arabia and with negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz at a standstill. An agreement between Iran and Oman on the management of the strait could be announced shortly, but ‘there remains the uncertainty over what the US reaction will be and, above all, whether the naval blockade – which has led to attacks on several ships in recent days – will remain in place’, point out analysts at MPS.

There was also a sharp rise in the European gas price in Amsterdam, above 74 euros per MWh.

Meanwhile, still in the commodities sector, copper is setting new records: the three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached $14,617 per tonne, bringing the year-to-date rise to nearly 17 per cent. Prices are being driven primarily by structural factors, including growing demand linked to electricity grids, the energy transition and data centres: “On top of traditional demand from construction, industry and the automotive sector, there is now demand from an increasingly electrified economy,” explains Gabriel Debach, market analyst at eToro. Added to this is an increasingly tight physical supply situation outside the United States: “The current record high comprises a structural component and a much more immediate market component”, observes Debach, noting that uncertainty over possible new US tariffs has encouraged the bringing forward of imports into the US, inflating stocks and reducing availability in London and Shanghai.

The yen continues to take centre stage on the currency markets, extending the appreciation trend that began in recent trading sessions. The dollar/yen exchange rate has hit its lowest level since February, whilst euro/yen fell as far as November levels, dropping below 178 during the session.

On the contrary, the euro/dollar exchange rate remains broadly stable around 1.16, awaiting fresh catalysts. In this regard, analysts at MPS note that “the US inflation figure due on Friday could provide the market with a catalyst to establish a clearer direction”.

Widespread rises in European government bond yields, driven by tensions in the Middle East and high oil prices. The trend, which has been underway for several trading sessions, is also continuing in the US, which was closed on Monday for a public holiday. The BTP/Bund spread is also rising, above 82, whilst the yield on the benchmark 10-year Italian bond has risen above 4.2 per cent.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed sharply lower due to ongoing uncertainty over the conflict in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve’s policy. The Nikkei index fell by 1.7 per cent to 65,269.33 points. The electronics, machinery and automotive sectors were among the hardest hit.

The markets received no guidance from New York, which was closed for the Labour Day bank holiday, and investors are now looking ahead to the US inflation figures, due to be released on Friday. Investors are also keeping a close eye on oil prices and bond yields.

On the economic front, Japan’s gross domestic product grew by 0.4 per cent compared with the previous quarter in the second quarter, with an annualised increase of 1.4 per cent – revised upwards from preliminary estimates of 0.3 per cent and 1.1 per cent. The revision reflects higher business investment than previously reported. Real wages rose by 2.4 per cent in July compared with the previous year, the largest increase since May 2021, whilst nominal wages recorded their fastest growth since January 1997, fuelling expectations of an interest rate rise by the Bank of Japan at next week’s monetary policy meeting.

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