Markets

Stock markets in the red: Iran wants to store enriched uranium. Oil rises again

Nvidia's record accounts were not enough to push the rally further. Meanwhile, the European Commission revised downwards its expectations for Eurozone GDP while raising those for inflation. Generali performs well in Milan after the accounts

by Chiara Di Cristofaro and Giorgia Colucci

La Borsa in un minuto

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - After a swinging morning the European stock markets are all in the red, hanging on the outcome of the negotiations between the United States and Iran, with US President Donald Trump talking about a deal being close while Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive thatenriched uranium should not be sent abroad, thus stiffening Tehran's stance on one of the main US demands in the peace talks. US indices were in the red as Treasury prices fell again and yields rose.

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Uncertainty reigns supreme, therefore, on the outcome of the talks between the United States and Iran and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a situation that is still struggling to unblock after almost three months of conflict, and with the oil price back on the rise after Khamenei's words, along with fears for inflation and growth. The effects on economic forecasts, meanwhile, were seen in the worsening of the EU Commission's estimates on GDP and inflation, which pushes away the possibility of central banks raising rates.

It was not enough, therefore, for the market to continue rallying the record results of the giant Nvidia, which the market had been expecting. The US chip giant released numbers that far exceeded expectations, but which once again leave us with the central question of this whole euphoric phase: how long can we grow at this rate? And, above all, will AI fulfil the promises made to the market?

I mercati a metà seduta

Wall Street down with Iran rebus. Nvidia flat

Wall Street also moved lower, with indices weighed down by soaring oil prices and Treasury bond yields, as traders analysed Nvidia Corp's quarterly earnings report. The company far exceeded Wall Street's expectations in terms of earnings and forecasts, also announcing a quarterly dividend increase in cash to 25 cents. However, investors are now expecting the chipmaker to beat estimates and revise its forecasts upwards amid a boom in artificial intelligence. Therefore, in premarket, Nvidia's shares are flat.

On the macro front, there were less than expected applications for unemployment benefits in the last week (209,000 versus an estimated 210,000), down 3,000. On the other hand, conditions in the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia area deteriorated (and disappointed expectations): the index calculated by the local Fed was -0.4 points, against expectations for a figure of 17.8 points, after 26.7 points in the previous month. Rounding out the picture were the data on building sites and building permits, which showed opposite, but better-than-expected trends in April.

Avio still running in Milan. Well Generali after the accounts, down Stellantis with the plan

Piazza Affari posted good Generali, rewarded after first-quarter accounts that saw a 8% rise in operating profit to €2.2 billion. But the pink jersey is still held by Avio, which did not stop its run of recent sessions after the successful launch of the Smile satellite with the Vega C launcher. Also well set up were the Ferrari, oil stocks resumed their upward trend as crude oil prices rose again.

Abrupt slide to the bottom of the list for Stellantis on the day of the presentation of the new business plan: 60 billion investments with four brands at the centre but for the time being no details on the financial targets or the payout have been revealed yet.

Banks were generally weak, with Unicredit leading the declines. Down again Diasorin after the investor day on the eve of the event.

Oil back up, gas up too

On the energy front, oil is running again with news coming out of the Middle East: the Brent is moving up to USD 107 per barrel and Wti is back above USD 100. Also on the rise was the natural gas in Amsterdam, which is aiming at EUR 50 per megawatt hour. Slightly down was the price of gold, which traded at $4,500 an ounce. On the currency side, the euro/dollar exchange rate dropped below 1.16.

EU Commission downgrades GDP and inflation estimates

On the macroeconomic front, theEuropean Commission has reduced its GDP growth estimates from the previous November estimates for the eurozone: this year activity is expected to grow by 0.9% and next year by 1.2% against the autumn estimate of 1.2% and 1.9% respectively. On the other hand, the inflation estimates were revised upwards: this year the consumer price growth rate is expected to stand at 3% after 2.1% in 2025 (November estimate 1.9%), in 2027 it is expected to fall to 2.3% (previous estimate 2%).

Spreads up slightly, down 10-year yield

Slightly upward the spread between the BTp and the Bund: the yield differential between the benchmark ten-year BTp and the German bond of equal duration moved above 74 points, compared to 73 points at the previous close. Still declining, after the sharp decline on the eve of the meeting,the yield of the benchmark ten-year BTp was in the 3.80% area from 3.83% of the previous benchmark.

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