Upb: 'With structural decrease in evasion, debt improves between 4 and 6 points. Criticality in the collection of state and local taxes"

If the revenue catch-up trend observed between 2002 and 2023 continued until 2028, tax revenues would structurally increase by up to 0.3 percentage points of GDP and, in the medium-long term (i.e. to 2041), the debt-to-GDP ratio would fall by more than 4 percentage points, from 122.5 to 118 per cent. In a more ambitious scenario, based on the trends observed between 2016 and 2023, revenues would increase by 0.4 percentage points of GDP and the reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio in the medium to long term would be more than 6 percentage points, falling to 116% in 2041.

This is what emerges from simulations by the Upb, which highlight how the structural reduction of tax evasion produces 'clear advantages for public accounts. Although Italia continues to record high levels of tax evasion compared to other European countries,' the Parliamentary Budget Office emphasises, 'significant progress has been made over the last twenty years thanks to the introduction of measures that have produced particularly appreciable effects on VAT (split payment, reverse charge, telematic transmission of receipts, electronic invoicing) that, if consolidated over time, could create new budget margins that could possibly be used to reduce the debt/GDP ratio'.

The Parliamentary Budget Office points out that 'there remain, however, critical issues in the collection of state and local taxes (e.g., the Tari), with very low recovery rates and a continuing growth in the stock of roles. Therefore,' it concludes, 'it is necessary to consolidate policies to stimulate compliance and fight evasion, and to further strengthen assessment and collection mechanisms'.