Banco BPM in the spotlight; speculation mounts over a joint move by Unicredit and Agricole

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The banking crisis continues to dominate trading on the Milan Stock Exchange (FTSE MIB). Among the top performers, Banco Bpm on a day when, according to press rumours, Unicredit and Credit Agricole are reported to have recently considered a possible joint venture involving the bank, an idea that is said to have been discussed with the Italian authorities as part of the consolidation of the banking sector. The plan would involve a subsequent split of the bank, with Crédit Agricole set to receive around one-third of Banco Bpm’s assets.

It should be noted, however, that this is one of several scenarios under consideration and that UniCredit officially continues to describe itself as an observer of the Italian banking landscape. According to *Il Sole 24 Ore*, the possibility of a joint move by the two groups could represent an alternative to the merger between Banco BPM and MPS and indirectly favour Intesa Sanpaolo’s path towards Siena. The newspaper also highlights how Crédit Agricole, Banco Bpm’s largest shareholder with a 29.3 per cent stake, has repeatedly expressed opposition to a merger with Mps, whilst remaining interested in strengthening its presence in Italia, ‘one of the rationales behind the deal would also be the opportunity for UniCredit to return to the Banco BPM dossier following the failed attempt in 2025, overcoming the political and regulatory hurdles that could hinder a direct acquisition by the French group’, explain analysts at Intermonte.

According to analysts, “Unicredit may focus primarily on any remedies arising from transactions carried out by third parties, given the current focus on the Commerzbank deal”. On this latter point, the CEO of the German bank, Bettina Orlopp, has clarified that Commerzbank and UniCredit are in a ‘phase zero’, awaiting authorisation from the supervisory authorities, which will be granted either at the end of this year or early next year; this will be followed by a ‘phase one’ in which Commerzbank will become an independent listed bank. However, that will not be the end of the story, because “if we have come this far, it is clear that at some point we will also want to realise at least the domestic synergies that are possible”, said Orlopp.

This means that, in a second phase, there should be some sort of integration between Commerzbank and HVB. To achieve this, however, UniCredit will need to control at least 75 per cent of the shareholders’ meeting and therefore ‘the talks between UniCredit and the government, as the second-largest shareholder, are very important’. According to Banca Akros, “statements by Commerzbank’s CEO suggest that a full-scale industrial merger would in any case require broader support from shareholders”.