Districts slowing down, only food growing

At the other end of the spectrum, the decisive factor in the overall fall in average values is the collapse in Turkish demand for gold jewellery in Arezzo, a district that last year was the protagonist of an unprecedented surge towards Ankara and has now returned to normal: the negative balance, in the first half of the year, however, is almost one billion euro, almost half of the overall drop in the entire area monitored in the analysis.

Turkey in fact ranks first among the countries experiencing the largest drop in absolute value (-1.1 billion), followed at a distance by France, Germany and the United States, the latter being the third largest market for the districts, 'holders' of 11% of the total export values.

In some cases, however, the weight is decidedly higher, in particular for many areas of the food industry, where, however, fortunes are divided: while Sardinian dairy products (70% of exports go to the USA) still manage to grow, for Tuscan olive oil (43% going to Washington) the first half of the year was negative, with values falling by 22.6%.

Worse, however, was Belluno's eyewear industry, which saw values towards the USA almost halved.

While the final effect of the tariffs launched by the Trump administration is yet to be assessed, there is a general cooling of demand for some capital goods sectors, with more than one project put on stand-by, while elsewhere (see food) the predictable drop in demand was partly masked by early deliveries made before the official launch of the increases.

From the responses of the companies surveyed by Intesa Sanpaolo, however, a substantial confidence in the resilience of sales seems to emerge: seven out of ten indicate that the impact of US tariffs will be mitigated by the quality of production, which makes Made in Italy difficult to replace with local alternatives or those of other competitors.

In any case, the reaction of companies already seems to be directed in the direction of targeting other markets as well, as witnessed by the geographical areas with the highest growth, including Poland, the Arab Emirates and India. Warsaw, in particular, already ranks seventh among outlet markets and in the first six months of the year absorbed 3% of the districts' global export flows.

There are also brighter forecasts for Europe, which analysts expect to see a positive contribution from Germany by the end of the year and then next.

"From the loosening of spending constraints and the relaunch of infrastructure and defence," explains Intesa Sanpaolo economist Giovanni Foresti, "I expect a positive effect with spin-offs for our businesses. More generally, the uncertainty and dispersion of results experienced in this period will continue for a few quarters, from April onwards Trump's continuous announcements have in fact made the picture very volatile, disorienting businesses. In 2026, however, I think we can see better results.

In spite of the difficulties, and in the presence for the fourth consecutive six-month period of more districts declining than those growing, between January and June there was still a robust contribution of the system to our trade balance. Through a surplus of more than 25 billion euro, slightly down on 2024 but still the second best result ever.