Marche like Ohio: what is at stake for Meloni and Schlein

Health, transport, security, justice, the end of life and even the issue of the recognition of the State of Palestine. All the hot topics of political debate enter the Marche election campaign, pitting the outgoing Melonian governor Francesco Acquaroli against the Dem challenger Matteo Ricci. Nor could it be otherwise, in a land of just 1.3 million inhabitants that has become the 'swing state' that could mark a turnaround in view of the next political elections. If in fact Veneto and Calabria should remain with the centre-right and Tuscany, Campania and Apulia with the centre-left, the reconquest of the former red region that went to the right for the first time five years ago by the PD and allies of the wide camp could really change the picture in view of the 2027 policies. Hence the passage through the region - between Ancona and Pesaro, the city administered by Ricci for ten years - of all the national leaders, from Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to M5s leader Giuseppe Conte, passing, of course, through the Legahist leader Matteo Salvini and PD secretary Elly Schlein.

In short, the stakes are high, and it is all political. Schlein is hoping for a miracle in the awakening of the undecided, especially in the populous coastal area between Pesaro and Ancona where the PD has traditionally been stronger. If the miracle were to come true, it is clear that the Dem secretary would emerge strengthened not only as leader in pectore of the future coalition that will challenge the centre-right led by Meloni in two years' time, but also in the internal confrontation, so much so that she could decide to strengthen herself at the head of the party by bringing forward to 2026 the congress planned for 2027.

But the challenge of Ricci, who in July also had to collect a notice of guarantee for the 'affidopoli' investigation, appears to be uphill. And if the Marche people confirm Acquaroli, the result of the electoral round in the six regions - which will end on 23 and 24 November with the vote in Veneto, Apulia and Campania - will be a substantial draw, with the confirmation of the 'colours' of five years ago. Of course, Schlein can and will still be able to claim the undoubted success of having sealed the alliance with the M5s, with Avs and even with the renzian Italia Viva in all the regions on the ballot. An unthinkable result even just two years ago. But the price paid to M5s is not low: as many as two candidatures (Roberto Fico in Campania and Giuseppe Tridico in Calabria) and regional programmes that are very much shifted to 'grillini' themes, starting with citizenship income and the no to waste-to-energy plants, so much so that Azione di Carlo Calenda has pulled out of the wide field in protest in almost all the regions. And it is to be bet that in case of defeat the 'revolt' of the PD reformists, who with Lorenzo Guerini, Graziano Delrio and others are organising an event in Milan for the end of October, will take on new vigour.

Speculative is Meloni's expectation, for whom the defeat of the only Fratelli d'Italia governor would make the need to personally win the leadership of Veneto more pressing. It is no coincidence that the squaring up of the centre-right's missing candidates has been postponed until after the vote in Marche (in addition to the succession to Luca Zaia in Veneto, the candidates in Campania and Puglia are missing). In the event of Acquaroli's reconfirmation, on the other hand, the go-ahead is already ready for the candidature of the Leghist Alberto Stefani in exchange for Zaia's waiver to present a list in his name that would drain consensus from all the coalition parties (the Doge should be the League's chief candidate in all the provinces).

And on the table, in exchange for the leghist continuity in Veneto, the premier is willing to see the cards of the unruly ally on the electoral law that in her intentions will have to replace the Rosatellum: away with the lottery of single-nominal constituencies, 55% majority prize to the coalition that exceeds 40% and indication of the premier candidate (i.e. Meloni herself) on the ballot paper. For Salvini, Veneto is 'well worth a mass'?