Breaking down the psychological wall to reconnect Italy and Africa

Wars, political instability and dictatorial regimes have increasingly discouraged southern companies from entering African markets since the bloody end of colonialism. Yet only 300 km separate Palermo from Tunis and Cagliari is 600 km from Algiers (and 700 from Milan). The continental drift that over time has distanced Italy, and the Mezzogiorno in particular, from Africa is not so much geographical as social and cultural. It is a difficult barrier to overcome, especially when the size of companies is small and there is no
big company-umbrella to cover your back.

Trade between Africa and the southern regions in 2023 was close to EUR 15 billion, down 11% from 2022. But to fully understand how much trade relations have thinned, it is necessary to strip out gas and oil imports and exports of refined products. The trade volume drops sharply to 3.6 billion. The value of manufacturing exports net of refined petroleum products is only 2.3 billion, which, however, grew by 17% in one year. The concentration of exports is high: the top five countries by destination of southern Italian companies - in that order Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt and Libya - absorb almost 72%. Below the Sahara, Africa is once again an unexplored continent. Yet it is precisely at these latitudes that African markets are in the greatest ferment. It is no coincidence that ICE has opened offices in eight sub-Saharan countries in recent years. It would then be essential to stop considering the continent as a single indistinct nation; instead, it is a mosaic of 54 countries, with a common market area, the AFCTA, the African Free Trade Area, which will not be long in maturing. The take-off of the AFCTA will stimulate the growth of African companies, which will be able to operate in a larger market without tariff barriers. The size of companies will increase, continental champions will assert themselves, and in order to compete they will need partners to strengthen their offerings, to nurture innovation processes, and to acquire new skills. A gigantic space of opportunities for Italian companies. The second factor: Africa is the continental area that, together with Asia, is growing at the highest rate of development - +4.3% in recent years - despite conflicts, military regimes, inequalities and poverty. In the ranking of the 20 fastest growing countries in 2024, more than half, as many as 11, are African economies, such as Niger and Senegal, with rates higher than China. What will happen when the new generations that are beginning to govern many of these countries manage to remove the obstacles that have held back their development: corruption, dependence on the large international corporations that have plundered their resources, the infrastructure deficit. The third factor: it is the youngest continent in the world. Over 60% of the population is under 25 years old. According to World Bank estimates, while the West has plunged into demographic winter, Africa will exceed 2 billion inhabitants in 2050
and 4 in 2100.

The Mattei Plan, even if it succeeds in achieving a marginal share of its ambitious goals, will have the merit of shortening the distance - not the kilometres, but the psychological barrier and the perception of risk - between Italy and African countries. And for southern companies, opportunities for growth and collaboration are not lacking. An Africa with increasingly solid markets, which consolidates its industrial structure and strengthens its service infrastructures, accompanied by a new political class that has studied abroad and has decided to return to its countries of origin to change its destiny, will look for allies to grow: in agribusiness, pharmaceuticals, instrumental mechanics, automotive, tourism. They are wary of the Russians, they fear the Chinese, they dislike the French and the British - the countries most present in Africa - because of their colonial past, and they have begun to appreciate Brazilians and Spaniards: two 'Latin' countries. Like us. There is also room for Italy, and especially for those regions naturally projected towards the South.