Brianza slows down, optimism about 2026

The territory's figures, however, highlight the overall slowdown, with local GDP growing by only 0.2% in 2024 as a result ofthe stagnation of industry (manufacturing production at -0.3%) and the slowdown of services (current turnover up only 3.3%). Despite this, exports remained a strong point, growing by 4.4% in value (EUR 14.4 billion), a performance well above the Lombardy average. Pharmaceuticals (+17.1%), electronics (+14.6%) and mechanics (+4.5%) led the way, while sectors such as fashion (-7.1%), design-furniture (-3.6%) and automotive (-6.4%) showed weakness. On the employment front, the number of workers decreased marginally (-0.5%) and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.3%, although remaining at historically low levels.

The weakness continued in the first half of 2025. After a de facto stationary industrial production (-0.5% per year) and dynamic exports in Q1 (9.0% growth due almost exclusively to pharmaceuticals), the second quarter marked a sharp contraction: manufacturing output fell by 5.2% and exports in value terms decreased by 1.2% (with double-digit declines for electronics, -36.6%, and mechanics, -14.4%).

In terms of markets, Germany remains the largest trading partner (EUR 1.5 billion of exports in 2024), followed by Switzerland and the United States. The high dependence on Germany makes local manufacturing sensitive to the recovery of German industry, while the high projection on the American market amplifies the risks related to US tariffs. Assolombarda estimates a potential loss of EUR 146 million in exports to the US in one year as a result of higher tariffs (-1.0% of total exports, therefore a small change), which could rise to EUR 315 million in the long term.

Overall, GDP growth estimates for 2025 as a whole are therefore downgraded from the beginning of the year to a modest +0.3%, with stagnation expected for manufacturing and services still weak. To cope with global risks, such as tariffs exposure, it is crucial for companies to diversify export geographies and invest in innovation and quality.

"In today's figures, although in an ever-changing international landscape," emphasised Matteo Parravicini, President of Assolombarda's Monza and Brianza office, "the strength of our advanced manufacturing sector emerges once again, based on its ability to create value in complex supply chains and to develop the area's attractiveness as a hub for innovation. But in order to support the processes that companies are carrying out to become increasingly competitive, increasingly up-to-date skills are needed. A concrete and shared integration between the business world and the university system is the lever to attract young talent and ensure the productivity of our companies. I am thinking of what I would call laboratories of excellence where the synergies between the world of education and the world of production are increasingly close and capable of generating an ecosystem of value, a model that can be a virtuous example where institutions and businesses actively collaborate for economic development, pooling skills for a sustainable and measurable future'.

The survey conducted by Assolombarda on a sample of more than 100 innovative industry and service companies in Monza and Brianza shows a polarisation and worsening of expected performance in 2025, against more favourable prospects for 2026.

Turnover expectations for the year 2025 have worsened significantly compared to the previous autumn's forecasts, mainly reflecting the slowdown in global demand. 46% of the companies expect an increase in turnover, 20% stability and 34% a decrease.

This polarisation is a sign of uncertainty, however, an overall resilience in operating margins is observed, with two-thirds of respondents estimating a stable (32%) or growing (34%) EBIT, partly due to the lower prices of some raw materials.

In the first ten months of 2025, the main risk factors perceived by companies were difficulty in finding suitable personnel and insufficient demand. On the first front, for 43% of the companies responding to the survey, this is a high risk. Indeed, with a low provincial unemployment rate (around 3%), the search for candidates is an intense 'competition'. Suffice it to say that, in the first half of 2025, 53% of the professional figures sought were hard to find, a figure higher than the Lombardy and Italian average.

Demand shortfall (42% high risk) is up from 2024 (where it was 32%), due to the modest pace of world trade and the weakness of European industry.

Among other obstacles, the high cost of energy was predominantly perceived as a medium risk factor (level indicated by 42% of the sample, high risk for 22%). Financial constraints (high risk for only 11%) and the prices of raw materials/components (9% high risk) were perceived as less impactful.

Expectations for 2026 are more optimistic, in line with Assolombarda's macroeconomic forecasts that indicate an acceleration of provincial GDP to +0.8%. As far as turnover is concerned, 58% of companies expect an increase in sales in 2026, 33% stability and only 9% estimate a decrease.

Assolombarda's analysis confirms the presence of a nucleus of companies of excellence, with 16 realities able to go beyond 800 million in revenues, nine of which reach over one billion. The technology distributor Esprinet is the leader, followed by Stmicroelectronics and Mediamarket (Mediaworld).