Brunello Cucinelli under the lens after growing half-yearly report

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Brunello Cucinelli under the lens at Piazza Affari in the aftermath of the release of half-year earnings. The stock, which started out on the rise, is now moving lower. The Umbrian fashion house closed the first half of 2025 with revenues of 684 million, up +10.2% at current exchange rates and 10.7% at constant exchange rates compared to the first half of 2024. The company recorded 'significant increases in all geographical areas, with the Americas recording +8.7% (+10% at constant exchange rates), Europe +10% (+9.6% at constant exchange rates), and Asia +12.5% (+13% at constant exchange rates'). In addition, sales were up in both sales channels, with retail up 10.3% and wholesale up 10.1%. The founder and executive chairman, Brunello Cucinelli, confirmed the growth forecast of around 10% for both 2025 and 2026.

Analysts are all in agreement in appreciating the company's ability to manage to grow briskly, despite the period of crisis that the fashion world is going through. This is mainly due to the high-end positioning of the products, which are mostly bought by an affluent clientele that is less elastic to GDP trends and inflation. However, business houses advise caution on Cucinelli's shares, believing that they are already fairly valued. Jefferies commented that Cucinelli is also likely to be the first company to open its half-year accounts by performance. The business house analysts were impressed by its capacity to post growth in all geographies. They also appreciated the indication during the conference call that Margins in 2025 are expected to improve slightly, also taking into account that garment prices have risen worldwide by 3-3.2% over the past few months and will also rise by around 4% in the coming months in the US alone, due to tariffs. In any case, Jefferies did not change its estimates for Brunello Cucinelli, confirming that it expects first half ebit to rise by 8% to €112.6 million. The rating also remained 'Hold' with a price target of €107.

Intermonte, on the other hand, while confirming its 'Neutral' recommendation, revised its target price on the Umbrian house's shares from EUR 107.5 to EUR 114. The experts pointed out that Cucinelli has a unique positioning and benefits from the demand for exclusive goods that remains strong in contrast to the rest of fashion, which is more volatile. "Brunello Cucinelli is confirmed as one of the few winners in the sector thanks to its positioning and its ethical and humanistic values," pointed out the sim analysts. Appreciations to Cucinelli's performance also came from Equita. "Given the resilience of the growth and the messages of confidence expressed by management, we raise our estimates for the full year by 1% with turnover now expected to grow 10% (in line with guidance) from +9% (consensus +9.5%)," indicated the sim's analysts, who however calculated a price target lower than the stock price of €103, albeit revised by 1%. "We think Brunello Cucinelli's performance will once again prove to be one of the best in the sector, which we see as declining overall. At the same time, however, valuations already reflect the strengths of the equity story in our view." Equita, in particular, estimates that the shares have an expected price-to-earnings ratio to 2026 of around 47 times against a historical average of the last ten years of around 43 times (rising to 49 times in the last three years) and with a premium over peers of around 130%, up from 113% in the last three years.