Government bonds

BTp: auction yields soar to a three-year high

The five-year bond yielded 4.08 per cent (+63 basis points), whilst the ten-year bond yielded 4.58 per cent (+49 basis points)

2' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

2' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Rising oil prices, rising inflation and expectations of further interest rate rises by the ECB are also having an impact on the auctions in which the Treasury has placed BTPs. Yields at the auction of 5- and 10-year government bonds have, in fact, risen to their highest levels in the last three years, reflecting the upward trend already seen on the secondary markets.

Auctions are becoming increasingly costly for the Treasury

Bonds totalling 8 billion were placed. Specifically, the first tranche of the new 5-year benchmark BTp maturing on 1 February 2032 was allocated for 3.5 billion, with a yield up by as much as 63 basis points compared with the previous auction to 4.0 per cent – a record high since October 2023. Demand totalled 5.389 billion, resulting in a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.54.

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The third tranche of the 10-year BTp maturing on 1 October 2036 was then allotted for 3 billion, with a yield that rose by 49 basis points to 4.58%, again reaching its highest level since October 2023.

Demand totalled 4.678 billion, with a coverage ratio of 1.56. The ninth tranche of the CcTeu maturing on 15 April 2036 was finally placed for 1.5 billion, with a yield of 3.38 per cent. Demand stood at 2.617 billion, with a coverage ratio of 1.75.

Misery loves company...

Today’s figures come against a backdrop of rising bond yields, which are hitting new multi-decade highs for long-term maturities: the US 10-year bond has reached 5.24 per cent, a level not seen since 2007, whilst the German Bund has reached 3.65 per cent, a level not seen since 2009.

The BTP-Bund spread remains stable at around 95 points. As mentioned, this rise in yields is linked to a number of factors.

The first is the rise in oil prices, which has driven up the cost of fuel. Prices for energy, copper and wheat are also rising. All of this is leading to continuous rises in inflation, both in Europe and in America. Just this morning, Spain’s September inflation figures were released, showing a rise to 4.9 per cent.

This is fuelling expectations of interest rate rises by central banks, starting with the ECB. The upshot is that government bond yields on the market are rising precisely because of these expectations.

Adding to this are global concerns about public finances and – particularly in the US – the competition posed by the massive bond issues undertaken by big tech firms to finance their investments in AI. As a result, government bond yields are rising, and with them the cost of public debt. Today’s auctions are merely the latest – yet another – snapshot of this global phenomenon.

Yields on 30-year US T-bonds rise to 5.60 per cent, their highest level since 2002

Yields on US government bonds continue to rise: yields on 30-year T-bonds have climbed to 5.60 per cent, reaching their highest levels since 2002.

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