BTp Value above 15 billion, final rates today (upwards)

Its navigation was complicated by an unforeseen war until last Friday, when the minimum rates were indicated. But in spite of yet another geopolitical shock, the BTp Valore continued to run, and as of yesterday had already surpassed the 15 billion barrier thanks to another 2.07 billion bought by 73,169 subscribers. As of Thursday evening, the counter thus marked purchases of 15.1 billion, spread across 479,233 contracts for an average per capita value of 31,497 euro.

Today at 1pm, at the close of the managed placement with Intesa, Unicredit and Bpm as dealers and Mps and Iccrea as co-dealers, the Treasury will announce the final yields. Which in all likelihood will be higher than the guaranteed minimums indicated at the end of last week. The dynamics of the markets, which after Wednesday's pause resumed pushing bond yields, are also pushing in this direction. Yesterday, BTp bonds with maturities between two and ten years recorded rises of around 14-15 basis points, with somewhat more pronounced rips than those experienced by German, French and Spanish government bonds. The same happened on the 10-year, which closed at 3.57%, up from 3.42% on Wednesday, with the spread rising from 67.8 to 72.7. Compared to last Thursday's close, i.e. on the eve of the minimum rates, in the time horizon covered by the new six-year BTp Valore (maturity 10 March 2032), rises ranged between 23 and 27-28 basis points.

The final outcome depends on this morning's performance. In any case, the typical yield-setting mechanism for government bonds intended for savers, with the initial indication of guaranteed minimums and the final decision on actual yields that may confirm or raise the values on the eve of the event, is designed to respond precisely to possible shocks on the markets. Because a week is necessary to give small investors time to mature their choices; but anything can happen in a week, especially in phases like these.

What will not change, however, will be the yield architecture, with the two-year triple step that for the first time marks the life of a BTp Valore and the final loyalty premium at 8 per thousand to reward those who, after buying the bond this week, will keep it in their portfolio until maturity. Such a structure lends itself to comparison with multiple maturities, although obviously the two-year scan does not entail any obligation for subscribers because the BTp can be sold or bought at any time.