BTp Value already at 10.2 billion, final rates on Friday

At the end of the second day of placement, the new BTp Valore brings the collection to 10.23 billion, divided into 311,180 contracts, thanks to the 4.19 billion purchased yesterday by 134,234 subscribers.
The storm on the markets unleashed by the new war in the Middle East does not seem to stop savers, who indeed show that they see in the government bond designed for the retail market a refuge for their capital grappling with the unknown duration and economic fallout of the new Middle East crisis. This is indicated by the historical series numbers, in which before today only two issues, the first in June 2023 and the third in March 2024, have broken through the 10 billion threshold at the end of the second day. In both cases, the counter at the end of the week stopped above 18 billion. It is not certain that that figure can be replicated, because compared to the first day, the pace of purchases shows a somewhat more pronounced slowdown than average; but a similar dynamic also occurred in the third edition, that of the bond with March 2030 maturity, which with its 18.32 billion still represents the absolute record of BTp Valore adhesions, and was motivated first of all by the rush experienced on the first day (the only debut, before last Monday, to exceed six billion).
In any case, there are still many variables at play, and they also involve the final yields that will be guaranteed by the BTp. Those communicated last Friday by the Treasury, which indicate annual coupons at 2.5% gross in the first two years, 2.8% in the second and 3.5% in the final two years, are in fact the guaranteed minimums, which can be confirmed at the end of the issue (Friday at 1pm, unless it is closed early) or revised upwards.
In ordinary times reconfirmation is a foregone conclusion. But these are not ordinary times. Compared to last Friday, the yields of BTp with maturities between two and 10 years have risen by 14-15 basis points, thus not marginally reducing the premiums between 20 and 31 points originally thought for the BTp Valore in comparison with ordinary bonds. Questions about a possible final rate hike have therefore begun to circulate in the market, especially since the prospect of a new rise in inflation may put a new monetary easing back in the pits. But before Friday any certainty is impossible.