Mediobanca Survey

Businesses are returning to growth. Record investment in 2025

Analysis of 1,700 companies with over 500 employees. Revenue has risen by 39.6 per cent over the past ten years. Last year saw a 0.5 per cent recovery following two years of decline

 WS Studio 1985 - stock.adobe.com

5' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

5' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Revenues for Italian companies are set to grow again in 2025, following two years of slowdown, thanks above all to the boost from exports and the propensity to invest which, despite the difficulties and uncertainties experienced over the last ten years – from the pandemic to wars and trade tensions – have never waned and reached a record figure of 35 billion euros last year.

The annual survey carried out by Mediobanca’s Research Department on the financial statements of the 1,700 largest Italian industrial and service sector companies (which includes almost all companies with over 500 employees and 12.3 per cent of medium-sized manufacturing firms) confirms the competitiveness of the Italian business sector, particularly that of medium-sized and medium-to-large enterprises, and its ability to respond to market challenges, albeit with some distinctions – some of them marked – depending on the type of company and the sector in which they operate.

Loading...

Revenue growth

The combined turnover of the 1,700 companies (which account for 43 per cent of the industry’s total turnover and 48 per cent of the manufacturing sector’s) actually rose last year by 0.5 per cent compared with 2024, following two years of significant decline, with a fall of 6.2 per cent in 2023 and 3 per cent in 2024. The recovery, as explained by Mediobanca analysts, was driven primarily by exports, which rose by 3.3 per cent, offsetting the weakness of the domestic market, which contracted by 1 per cent. Growth was even more robust when considering manufacturing companies alone, whose revenues rose by 1.7 per cent overall last year, with the domestic market also holding up well (+0.3 per cent).

The most interesting aspect of the ‘Cumulative Data’ survey is that it examines the performance of the sample companies over a decade, from 2016 to 2025, thereby providing a snapshot of the state of health of our economy in the medium to long term. Over the period under review, the nominal turnover of the 1,700 companies increased by 39.6 per cent, whilst exports and sales on the Italian market grew by 45.6 per cent and 36.4 per cent respectively. Once again, the manufacturing sector recorded the best performance, with a 41.3 per cent increase in turnover over the decade, thanks to a 46 per cent rise in international markets and a 36.5 per cent rise in the domestic market. In particular, it is the sectors characteristic of ‘Made in Italy’ that have seen the strongest growth (+55.3 per cent in turnover over ten years), alongside the companies of so-called ‘IV capitalism’, that is, medium-sized and medium-to-large enterprises, which have once again proved to be an irreplaceable driving force behind the national economy, with revenues rising by 50.4 per cent over the decade.

However, as mentioned, there are also significant differences between the various sectors, with plant engineering and construction recording the most substantial increases (+142.5 per cent and +131.1 per cent respectively), whilst at the opposite end of the scale we find radio and television broadcasting (down by 12.5 per cent), the press and publishing sector (-4.4 per cent) and telecommunications (-3.7 per cent), the only sectors with turnover figures lower than those of 2016.

Differences are, of course, also evident within individual sectors, such as the transport sector, where the automotive industry has seen a decline in both turnover (-8.4 per cent), exports (-3.1 per cent) and sales on the Italian market (-18.5 per cent), whilst shipbuilding is among the sectors that have recorded the most significant increases, with revenue up by 115.8 per cent, thanks mainly to exports (+122.9 per cent), but also to sales in Italia (+100.5 per cent).

Profitability, investment and employment

So much for the analysis of turnover. However, the Mediobanca survey also takes into account other relevant factors when assessing the resilience and competitiveness of the system, and all of these are on the rise. Profitability is in fact on the rise; following the decline in 2020 (-4.1 per cent), it has gradually recovered ground, bringing the average EBIT margin for the period 2023–2025 to 6.8 per cent (compared with 5.6 per cent over the previous seven years), and has remained broadly stable over the last three years. Investment is rising; as mentioned, in 2025 it reached a decade-high of €35.5 billion in total, compared with €29 billion in 2019, i.e. the pre-pandemic period. And although sectoral differences are also evident here, the upturn is widespread across all sectors. Employment is also rising, up by 11.8 per cent over the decade and by 1.3 per cent in 2025 compared with the previous year.

Above all, Italian businesses (and in particular medium-sized and medium-to-large ones) have demonstrated over the past ten years that they are capable of generating wealth. Mediobanca’s survey has in fact calculated (using an indicator known as EVA 2.0) the capacity to create value after remunerating all stakeholders: indeed, the 1,700 companies generated an average of 9,300 euros per employee per year in value, with seven out of the 26 sectors considered maintaining a positive indicator consistently throughout the period, including pharmaceuticalsand cosmetics sector (+€27,600 on average over the decade), the food sector (+€8,800), the rubber sector (+€21,900) and the wood and furniture sector (+€9,000). This is because nominal productivity rose between 2016 and 2025 by more than the per capita labour cost: +22.6 per cent compared with 18.8 per cent.

Conversely, a number of other sectors have seen a decline in wealth, such as telecommunications, transport and construction.

The challenge: productivity and labour costs

The challenge now, as Mediobanca’s analysts point out, is to transform this ability to create wealth into an ability to distribute it more evenly and widely: inflationary pressures in recent years (particularly during the 2022–2023 period) have in fact significantly reduced Italians’ purchasing power. Taking into account cumulative inflation of 21.4 per cent over the decade, the labour cost per employee in 2025 was 2.2 per cent lower than in 2016. To fully recoup the loss of purchasing power accumulated since 2021, the average labour cost per employee would have had to reach around 71,500 euros in 2025, compared with the 67,300 actually recorded, representing a shortfall of approximately 4,200 euros.

Loading...

Finally, a historical note: Mediobanca’s Research Department has access to a wealth of data on companies dating from 1968 to the present day and, thanks to this data, has been able to establish that over these 58 years, the real turnover of Italy’s leading companies has increased by more than the national GDP, rising by 190.4 per cent, compared with a 162.6 per cent increase in Gross Domestic Product.

Copyright reserved ©
Loading...

Brand connect

Loading...

Newsletter

Notizie e approfondimenti sugli avvenimenti politici, economici e finanziari.

Iscriviti