Butter, guns and algorithms. Europe on the test of competitive security
Russian aggression against Ukraine has forced Europe into a rude geopolitical awakening. After decades spent 'spreading butter' under the American military umbrella, the old continent is inevitably realising the ineffectiveness of having 27 types of guns in a radically changed geopolitical context. In many European countries, the dilemma between welfare and security remains, with military spending perceived as a drain on social resources. But today it is time to recognise that this opposition is now outdated: it is necessary to radically rethink the European model of security and competitiveness by overcoming the old dichotomy between 'butter and guns'.
The real issue is not choosing, but integrating: only efficient defence can generate prosperity, and only innovative prosperity can sustain defence. I explored this theme at the Digital Italy Summit, a landmark event on digital innovation in Italy promoted by TIG - The Innovation Group. The key to keeping these seemingly opposite worlds in balance lies in the so-called dual-use technologies, i.e. those solutions born for defence but capable of spilling over into the civil sphere - and vice versa. Many of the innovations that mark our daily lives - from the Internet to GPS - originated in the military and then migrated to the civil sphere. Today, the flow has reversed: the creativity of start-ups and big tech generates technologies that are subsequently adapted for defence. AI, the new 'utility' of the 21st century, is an enabling platform for every production process and, inevitably, military as well. The world of technology is an osmotic ecosystem, where value arises from hybridisation. To continue to separate the two domains would be to condemn oneself to irrelevance. From this perspective, investing in dual-use does not mean taking resources away from welfare, but strengthening its foundations. Every euro spent on dual technologies produces a dividend for both defence and the market.
Europe needs industries that provide protection, and generate productivity and technological autonomy. The challenge, however, is not only economic, but above all institutional. Today, Europe spends a lot, but spends badly. Separate budgets, incompatible autonomous weapon systems and administrative fragmentation multiply costs and reduce effectiveness. What is needed is federal defence governance, capable of integrating technological supply and demand, concentrating resources and coordinating investments. In this perspective, public-private convergence also becomes crucial. Dual-use technologies are ideal terrain for attracting private capital because they offer a large and dynamic market. Instruments such as the European Defence Fund or the European Investment Bank are important steps, but not enough: a coordinated action plan is needed. For European and national institutions, the key action is to fluidify capital and create a more efficient market.
It is imperative to create a European 'one-stop-shop' to guide companies through the available funds. For companies, universities and research centres, the objective is to accelerate innovation and train the required professional profiles. It is essential to strengthen the collaboration between universities and companies through doctorates and joint laboratories. Large defence companies must transform themselves from closed platform providers to 'open ecosystem integrators' who actively scout for start-ups, invest in them and rapidly integrate their technologies. Finally, there is a cultural knot. Talking about defence should not evoke scenarios of war, but of resilience and development. Security is an essential public good, a precondition for economic and environmental sustainability. Integrating it into educational pathways, promoting informed public debates and incorporating international security and geopolitical issues into educational pathways, is an important step in building a mature consensus on the issue.
*Carlo Alberto Carnevale Maffè - Professor of Strategy, SDA Bocconi School of Management
