Byd on the way to historically overtaking Ford in the sales top ten

BYD does not sell passenger vehicles in the US, where President Joe Biden has raised a wall against Chinese cars (tariffs at 102.5%). The same applies to Canada. Under the newly elected Donald Trump it will be very difficult, if not impossible, for things to change, given the protectionist approach of the new administration. Trump, unless his advisor and Tesla CEO Elon Musk can change his mind, is aiming for a clean sweep of Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (Ira), the law passed in 2022 that allocated over 700 billion to combat climate change. The Ira includes over 8 billion until 2030 to buy zero-emission cars. Trump has promised duties of up to 200% on imports from Mexico, where BYD opened a plant two years ago, geared mainly to the Latin American market (in Brazil BYD has 30% of the market share for Evs). Trump's war on decarbonisation could bring relief to General Motors, Ford and Stellantis.

For now China's leading manufacturer (at home it has one third of the Ev market) continues to grow in emerging markets (South East Asia, Middle East, Latin America. In Europe, where additional duties were introduced on 31 October, BYD sold 35,000 cars during 2024, already more than double the number sold in 2023, but less than the 115,000 MG Motors (mostly thermals, however) produced by the Chinese state-owned group Saic (+14%). The Shenzhen group's pre-emptive response to European duties (27% for BYD) was, in addition to the construction of a production site in Hungary, to be opened in 2027, also the recent billion euro investment in Turkey, a country that allows exports to the EU thanks to the Customs Union.

Meanwhile, traditional manufacturers, from Volkswagen (undergoing heavy restructuring to regain momentum and competitiveness) to Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz, from BMW to Toyota and Nissan (which on Friday announced cuts of 9,000 jobs and 20 per cent of global production capacity) are all grappling with a difficult transition to electric, which Western consumers have not accepted to the extent expected. The reason? The technology and the difficulties it brings (recharging in the first place), but above all the price, which is still too high compared to the thermal versions, and the too rapid depreciation.

Meanwhile, the world's number one manufacturer, Japan's Toyota, intends to adopt an ambitious strategy to strengthen its presence in China, where it has been losing market share to competition from local car makers, aiming to produce up to 2.5 million vehicles per year by 2030, a 63% increase over 2022. In 2023, Toyota produced 1.75 million vehicles in the Middle Kingdom. The new plan aims to regain lost ground to BYD and other Chinese competitors through greater decision-making autonomy for Chinese managers and a reorganisation of joint ventures with FAW and GAC.

The company decided to consolidate the production of twin models at one joint venture, increasing efficiency and better integrating the know-how of local partners. In addition, Toyota is transferring development responsibilities to staff in China to adapt more quickly to consumer preferences, especially in terms of electric and connected vehicles.

Despite the difficulties of competing with local manufacturers of electric vehicles, Toyota is intensifying its cooperation with suppliers to ensure supply chain stability. The Japanese manufacturer has emphasised the importance of this transformation, aware that a delay in adapting to the Chinese market could seriously jeopardise its future.

Nissan opened the week on the stock exchange in Tokyo with a drop of 4.31%. Japan's third-largest automaker (after Toyota and Honda) is facing a deep crisis, with a 70% drop in expected annual operating profit and a 7% reduction in production. The company announced cuts of 9,000 jobs and 20% of global production capacity in an attempt to reduce fixed costs and cope with an increasingly difficult market environment.

CEO Makoto Uchida, who halved his compensation along with top management, admitted that the Yokohama-based company did not anticipate the rapid growth in demand for hybrid vehicles, a mistake that is costing the Japanese brand dearly. To correct the course, the company is accelerating the development of new hybrid models and aims to increase efficiency through strategic partnerships with Renault, Mitsubishi and Honda.

The Chinese market also remains a thorn in Nissan's side, with declining sales and increasing competition from local brands such as the overall champion BYD.