Electric cars

BYD brakes and Tesla (despite everything) can take back the crown

The first quarter of the Chinese rival may give way to an unexpected overtaking, even in a difficult phase. The stock remains the worst in the S&P 500

Il logo BYD alla Everything Electric Exhibition di fine marzo a Londra.  REUTERS/Peter Cziborra

2' min read

2' min read

After snatching global leadership of electric cars from Tesla in the last quarter of 2023, BYD may well reclaim it soon. Indeed, in an unusually weak first quarter for its averages, BYD sold some 300,114 battery electric vehicles (Bevs) globally (9 out of 10 in China), a 13.4% year-on-year increase. Sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles, as reported to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, accounted for 52% of the company's total sales in the first quarter, at 324,000 (+14%). A total of over 624 thousand new energy vehicles (NEVs), comprising battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, up 14% over the same period in 2022. The acceleration (+46%) in March, at a difficult time for the Dragon's economy, lifted the disappointing trend of the first two months, in line with the Chinese competition.

So far the good news, for the Chinese player that made record profits in 2023 and of which Warren Buffet is a prominent shareholder through his investment holding Berkshire Hathaway.

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Sales of BYD-branded Nevs actually dropped by 43% compared to the 526,409 units sold in the fourth quarter of 2023, the very record by which the Shenzhen-based company overtook the Austin-based company. As for the overall Nev figure, it was down 33.8% from the 942,651 units sold in Q4 2023. Meanwhile, BYD reported an increase in exports in March, with overseas sales of new energy vehicles almost tripling to 38,434 units. This year's target declared by founder Wang Chuanfu is half a million cars, more than double the 2023 figure, and 3.6 million vehicles sold in total (+20%). The downturn in demand could play tricks.

Today the company led by Elon Musk is expected to publishits figures. Musk warned in January that growth in 2024 would be "considerably" slower while work is underway on the $25,000 vehicle, scheduled for production in late 2025.

The effect was seen on Wall Street, where Tesla shares plummeted almost 30% in the first three months, the worst stock in the S&P 500 index.

According to 17 analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha, Tesla, Reuters reported, is expected to deliver 458,500 vehicles in the quarter to 31 March. There are even more pessimistic analysts, who put the figure closer to 400 thousand. That would still be more than BYD's 300,000. It would also be more than the 422,875 units delivered in the same quarter last year, but the balance would amount to a drop of more than 5 per cent compared to the previous three months.The first since the second quarter of 2020.

Since the end of 2022, Musk has been aggressively cutting Tesla's prices at the expense of margins, with the aim of keeping volumes high but causing the residual value to plummet, thus creating no small amount of frustration among customers and contributing to the disruption of the used electric car market.

Tesla continued to reduce prices earlier this year in the US, China and Germany, while increasing discounts and incentives to drive demand. Although at some stages it has adjusted prices upwards. As of yesterday, for example, the price of the Model Y increased by $1,000 in the US.

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