Elections in Calabria with abstention unknown, risk of turnout below 40%

The election campaign in Calabria, on the ballot on 5 and 6 October, also closed with the national parties all lined up. Giuseppe Conte with challenger Pasquale Tridico on stage in Rossano-Corigliano in the north of the region (Elly Schlein participated by video link-up). Fdi fielded Arianna Meloni in Catanzaro, along with outgoing governor Roberto Occhiuto seeking an encore. While Matteo Salvini in Reggio Calabria has staked everything on the Strait Bridge, saying he is convinced that the centre-left 'will not lose, it will lose badly'.

Halls and squares full, despite the unusually cold weather. And an appeal by all the candidates to go and vote so that the ballot boxes, instead, are empty. A vote fixed a year ahead of the natural deadline, due to Occhiuto's decision, in July, to resign - running again at the same time - to avoid attrition, after learning that he was under investigation for corruption by the Catanzaro Public Prosecutor's Office.

But it is precisely abstentionism that is the ghost hovering over the Calabrian elections. Four years ago the turnout was 44.3%. In the Marche a week ago, the drop was over 9 points (from 59.7 to 50 per cent). If there were a drop of even 4-5 points in Calabria, it would go below the psychological threshold of 40 per cent. A real risk. Even if pollster Antonio Noto points out that 'the vote in Calabria is less ideological and more linked to the candidate, so a drop in turnout comparable to that of Marche is unlikely'. Without forgetting that 'Calabria has always had the largest proportion, around 30%, of residents on the register who actually live for study or work outside the region. And who do not return home to vote'.

On the last day of the election campaign, Occhiuto went on the attack against his challenger, stigmatising the 'absurd proposal' to suspend the road tax for Calabrian citizens. For the centre-left candidate, this is compensation for 'bad roads'. For the outgoing and re-elected governor, on the other hand, it is a measure that will bring '178 million' without which 'we will be destitute'. Tridico, Occhiuto urged, is running a campaign 'like Cetto La Qualunque and if it lasted a little longer he would even say that he would whitewash everyone's house...'. Giuseppe Conte, on the other hand, said he was convinced that 'the wave of citizens' could reserve 'nasty surprises' for Occhiuto, and Dem secretary Elly Schlein also urged people to go and vote because only in this way 'can we make a difference'.