Car sales following the EU-China agreement on export limits for hybrid vehicles

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The European automotive sector saw a positive trading session following the EU-China agreement to limit imports of Chinese hybrid cars into Europe. Stellantis is in the spotlight on the Milan Stock Exchange and in Paris, where it is vying for a place on the podium with Renault. In Frankfurt, Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz.

The agreement – signed in Beijing by the European Commissioner for Trade, Maros Sefcovic, and the Chinese Minister of Commerce, Wang Wentao – is reportedly set to provide for an annual cap of 350,000 Chinese hybrid vehicles imported into Europe, from 2027 onwards, whilst Chinese exports are forecast to rise to around 800,000 units in 2026. “The news is positive for European car manufacturers as a whole,” say analysts at Banca Akros, explaining that “the agreement would significantly limit imports of Chinese hybrid cars, reducing competitive pressure on European brands”.

Furthermore, the experts note, ‘China has accepted the restrictions and is not expected to take retaliatory measures against imports from the EU , thereby limiting the risk of a wider trade escalation’. In this context, Stellantis is also “relatively well positioned compared with its competitors, as locally produced Leapmotor vehicles are expected to be exempt from the proposed restrictions”. Akros confirms its Neutral recommendation on Stellantis shares and a target price of €4.50.

In the long term, according to analysts at Bernstein, the impact is expected to be ‘largely neutral’, as the major Chinese car manufacturers are already localising production in Europe, with BYD set to start production in Hungary by the end of 2026. Leapmotor – a young Chinese manufacturer specialising in electric vehicles – is, meanwhile, utilising Stellantis’s production network in Spain, whilst Geely aims to start production at the Ford plant in Spain from 2028, adds Bernstein.