Carrefour takes a hit in Paris as 2026 targets are revised downwards following the unrest in France

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Carrefour’s shares plummeted on the Paris Stock Exchange following the publication of its financial results. Shares in the French retail group fell by around 14 per cent, whilst the CAC 40 is rising cautiously, weighed down by the downward revision of its 2026 targets. Specifically, the company estimates that last weekend’s violence and looting, which affected around fifty stores, will weigh on current operating profit by an amount of between 80 and 200 million euros in the current financial year.

“It’s a message I would have preferred not to convey, but, out of a sense of responsibility, I must tell the truth about what I see,” said the group’s chief executive, Alexandre Bompard, speaking on France Inter. With the ‘end-of-year period’ – a crucial time for the sector – approaching, ‘this situation is having a significant impact on consumer spending’ and ‘on business in our shops’, explained the group’s chief financial officer, Matthieu Malige, during a press conference.

Carrefour now forecasts growth in recurring operating profit for 2026, with an increase in the operating margin of between zero and 15 basis points compared with 2025, as opposed to the 25 basis points previously estimated. Adjusted earnings per share are forecast to remain stable or rise slightly in 2026, compared with the previous forecast of a mid-to-high single-digit percentage increase. Finally, the group expects a slight decline in net free cash flow, whereas a slight increase had previously been anticipated.

“At this stage, it is extremely difficult to assess the extent of the impact,” note analysts at Jefferies; moreover, in addition to the violence, “the slowdown in sales in France in September and the further price cuts” represent “further causes for concern” for investors. The group’s results were actually positive in the third quarter of 2026, with sales up 2.3 per cent to 22.7 billion euros, slightly above the analysts’ consensus forecast of 2.1 per cent growth. This figure also marks an acceleration compared with the +1.9 per cent recorded in the second quarter.

In France, Carrefour’s main market, sales rose by 1.2 per cent, driven in particular by the integration of the Cora stores and price cuts. “It’s very frustrating. We’d been performing very well for nine months, we were on track to meet our targets, but then the deterioration in social and security conditions led us, out of a sense of responsibility, to inform our investors and the market that we were no longer able to meet the targets we had set ourselves for the final quarter,” Carrefour’s chief executive added.