Carrefour profit warning: the wave of violence in France is changing the forecasts

The wave of violence currently rocking France has already had a significant impact on French government bonds, with rising yields widening the spread on French government bonds, but it is now taking its toll on the profit and loss accounts of companies listed on the Paris Stock Exchange. The first to sound the alarm was Carrefour, which has revised down its earnings per share forecasts for the whole of 2026. The announcement, made after European markets had closed, was met on Wall Street with a wave of selling that sent ADRs listed on the US market down by more than 8 per cent.

Specifically, the Carrefour Group has revised its outlook for 2026 downwards. Weighing on the forecasts of the French retail giant are the recent social unrest in France, which has affected consumer confidence, reduced footfall in shops and caused damage to numerous outlets. The company has, in fact, announced a cut to its estimates for adjusted earnings per share, which are now expected to remain stable or show slight growth, compared with the previous target of a high single-figure increase. Targets for 2026 relating to the recurring operating margin, net free cash flow and capital expenditure have also been revised downwards.

“Our group is facing an unprecedented situation in France,” said CEO Alexandre Bompard on Tuesday, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding consumer spending trends and the conditions under which stores will be able to continue operating. According to the executive during a conference call with analysts, around 50 Carrefour stores were affected on the very first day of the unrest. Several stores were looted and suffered significant damage. The consequences for the group include lower customer footfall, reduced opening hours due to the curfew, and higher costs for security and logistics.

The new guidance highlights the group’s difficulties in coping with a situation in which pressures on consumption are compounded by the direct consequences of the unrest and the increased costs required to ensure the security of its stores.

The fallout from the protests could extend to the entire retail and luxury sector. In fact, sales figures from FNAC Darty and the Hermès International and Kering groups – the latter being the owner of the Gucci brand – are due to be released in the coming days, and these could provide further insight into the impact of the unrest on business operations.