Casanova: 'Gold stocks will run again driven by portfolio rotation'

From the Magnificent Seven to gold mining. It is not a linear path, but 'capital rotation could be the next catalyst for gold-related investments', capable of further accelerating the rally in gold stocks. This is how Imaru Casanova, portfolio manager of VanEck, the issuer of what is by far the largest ETF specialising precisely in this niche sector, which this year - after a very long period of stagnation on the stock market - has finally reawakened. The Van Eck Gold Miners (GDX) - with net assets of USD 25.5 billion as at 11 December - boasts an exceptional performance in 2025: +125% since the beginning of the year, a rise that is roughly double that of gold (against which they are catching up).

Bullion prices, after a correction phase, are again approaching the historical record of mid-October, peaking yesterday above $4,350 an ounce. And gold stocks are following suit: VanEck's Etf is back to the highs. But this may only be the beginning.

'Gold mining is still relatively undervalued, both compared to gold and to the rest of the stock market,' says Casanova, interviewed by Il Sole 24 Ore, convinced that the sector could receive a further boost from the reshaping of portfolios initiated by many investors. "It would be enough for some money to leave the Magnificent Seven," hypothesises the Venezuelan, who thanks to her training as a mining engineer combined with solid financial skills has won the esteem and trust of Joe Foster, VanEck's legendary manager-geologist, now a senior, to the point of becoming its 'dauphin'.

"I am not saying that for investments diverted from hi tech the first destination will be gold stocks, not least because this sector still struggles to find visibility: in all, it has a market capitalisation of just $1 trillion, a tiny share of the global equity markets, and in the S&P 500 there is only one gold company, Newmont. At the very least, managers are talking about Natural Resources, a segment that also includes energy and mining stocks that do not mine gold'. Interest, however, has returned, albeit at a delayed pace compared to the gold rally that began over three years ago. Casanova is not surprised by the lack of synchronicity. "Gold protects against financial instability and volatility, it is a safe haven asset and a hedge against inflation, so in our opinion it is logical that it should find a place in every investment portfolio, even if we suggest a share of 5% and not 10-15% as others say. The truth, however, is that until this year it was mainly central banks, and not private investors, that realised this. And central banks buy metal, not shares'.

Once interest is rekindled, the rest is a logical consequence. "When investors decide to gain exposure to gold, the first choice always falls on bullion. Only later, when the market has become accustomed to steadily higher gold prices, do they begin to ask themselves, "What else can I do?" And it is at that point that the focus begins to shift to gold companies as well: it is a natural transition, which in this cycle has taken longer than in the past, but which has now finally arrived'.