Catering: in September, inflation outstripped consumption by a ratio of 3 to 1
Visitor numbers remain stable (+0.3 per cent); spending rises by 1.7 per cent, though less than the sector’s price increases (+2.9 per cent), resulting in a fall in real revenue
In bars and restaurants, inflation is outpacing consumption by a ratio of 3 to 1. Despite a broadly stable level of customer footfall – and even an increase in spending in nominal terms – rising costs are leading to a fall in revenue for business owners in real terms. According to the Fipe-Confcommercio Research Centre’s price and consumption observatory, in September 2026, consumption in the catering sector showed a substantial stability in the frequency of visits (+0.3 per cent compared with the same month in 2025) and a 1.7 per cent increase in spending at current prices.
With inflation in the catering sector standing at +2.9 per cent, the nominal growth rate in consumption is nevertheless insufficient to offset the effects of rising prices, resulting in a contraction in spending in real terms. The analysis also shows that, although the average bill has risen by 1 per cent year-on-year, it is growing at a slower rate than prices in the sector.
The analysis by occasion of consumption shows a relatively positive trend for main meals and the evening aperitif: lunch saw a rise of +3.3 per cent in visits and +3.5 per cent in value, dinner rose by +2.0 per cent and +1.4 per cent respectively, whilst the evening aperitif recorded a +3.4 per cent increase in visits and +7.9 per cent in value. By contrast, afternoon consumption declined (-5.2% in visits and -1.3% in value), as did consumption after dinner and at night (-2.3% in visits and -10.4% in value).
As regards consumption channels, restaurants (+3.6% in visits, +4.3% in value) and cafés (+2.5% in visits, +2.0% in value) are performing well. Canteens (+5.4% in visits, +6.2% in value) and ice-cream parlours (+14.4% in visits, +11.9% in value) are also on the rise, whilst food delivery (-7% in visits and -14.6% in value) and takeaways (-6.1 per cent in visits and -1.9 per cent in value).
On the price front, inflation in the catering sector slowed to +2.9 per cent year-on-year in September (down from +3.2 per cent in August), remaining well below overall inflation (+4.2 per cent), which was driven by energy prices. In cafés, prices rose by +3.2 per cent (+4.4 per cent for patisseries and ice-cream parlours and +2.8 per cent for coffee shops), in traditional restaurants by +2.6 per cent and in pizzerias by +3 per cent. Finally, canteens recorded a 2.1 per cent increase.
