Confindustria Research Centre: 2026 GDP forecast raised to +1 per cent; 2027 forecast remains at +0.6 per cent

The Confindustria Research Centre has raised its estimate for Italian GDP growth in 2026 to +1.0% (bringing it into line with the government’s figures in the Dpfp) and confirms its forecast of a slowdown to +0.6% for 2027. This is set out in the Autumn Forecast Report , which in March had estimated economic growth at +0.5 per cent and +0.6 per cent respectively.

This year’s +1 per cent is broadly in line with the change already recorded – that is, the figure that would be recorded at the end of the year assuming zero quarter-on-quarter growth in the third and fourth quarters, without adjusting for the number of working days. The outlook is therefore for an overall ‘slowdown in the final months of the year that will carry over into 2027’.

CsC’s forecast is based on current legislation and therefore does not incorporate the national safeguard clause for increased expenditure on defence and energy security, which amounts to 14.4 billion for 2026–27. The CsC warns that energy prices will be the main source of vulnerability for the Italian economy in 2027, to the extent that there is a risk of ‘zero growth’ if the average annual price of Brent crude reaches $126 per barrel.

The deficit-to-GDP ratio in Italia is set to fall to 2.9 per cent this year (3.1 per cent in 2025) and will fall further to 2.8 per cent in 2027, according to the CsC’s estimates. In the spring, the analysis had forecast 2.8 per cent this year and 2.7 per cent in 2027. As regards general government debt, the Research Centre anticipates a rise to 137.9 per cent this year (from 136.7 per cent in 2025), compared with the 138.7 per cent indicated in the spring, and a figure confirmed at 138 per cent next year.

The price of energy will be the main source of vulnerability for the Italian economy in 2027, to the extent that there is a risk of ‘zero growth’ if the average annual price of Brent crude reaches $126 per barrel. The same risk would arise if the average oil price were to stand at $115 per barrel – compared with $75 in the current baseline scenario for 2027 and $94 for 2026 – and the average gas price at €89 per megawatt-hour, compared with €58 in the 2027 baseline scenario (€55/MWh this year), according to the forecast by the Confindustria Research Centre. As for the ETS, the European Union’s mechanism for reducing greenhouse gases, and high energy costs, these weigh ‘like boulders on the competitiveness of Italian businesses’; moreover, at least half of the benefits achieved in terms of emissions are attributable to business closures.