Cgia Mestre: pensions paid in the South exceed wages

In the Mezzogiorno more pensions are paid than salaries, but within a few years the overtaking will also take place in the rest of the country. According to some forecasts, 2.9 million Italians are destined to leave the labour market by 2028 due to age limits, 2.1 million of whom are currently employed in the central and northern regions. This is the snapshot taken by the Cgia Studies Office, which processed data from the Inps and Istat. It is evident, it is emphasised, given the serious demographic crisis currently underway, that it will be difficult to replace all these workers who will no longer be required to clock out every day. In short, the cheques issued by the Inps are destined to exceed the payrolls of the workers and clerks employed in our factories and offices, even in the geographical divisions of the Centre and North, thus jeopardising the economic sustainability of our health and welfare system. Lecce, Naples, Messina, Reggio Calabria and Palermo are the most assisted areas.

The latest available data allowing a comparison between the number of employees and the number of pensions paid to Italians refer to 2022. If at that time the number of employees and the self-employed was close to 23.1 million, underlines the Cgia, the cheques paid out to pensioners were just under 22.8 million (a balance of +327 thousand). Some might legitimately observe that compared to 2022 the figures have changed, particularly those referring to the employed. This objection is more than supportable; in fact, the number of people employed in Italy has increased and while waiting for the INPS to update its statistics, it is just as reasonable to assume that the number of pensions paid out in this last year and a half has also increased, even more than the increase in active workers.

From the analysis of the balance between the number of employed persons and pensions paid in 2022, the most unbalanced province in Italy is Lecce: the difference is -97 thousand. It is followed by Naples with -92 thousand, Messina with -87 thousand, Reggio Calabria with -85 thousand and Palermo with -74 thousand. It should be noted that the high number of cheques paid out in the South and the Islands is not attributable to the excessive presence of old-age/early retirement pensions, but, instead, to the high prevalence of social or incapacity benefits. This is a worrying result that demonstrates in all its clarity the effects caused in recent decades by four phenomena that are closely interrelated: the birth rate, the progressive ageing of the population, an employment rate well below the EU average, and the presence of too many irregular workers. The combination of these factors has progressively reduced the number of active contributors and, consequently, increased the number of welfare recipients.

Unbalanced situation also in 11 northern provinces. In the coming years the situation is expected to worsen sharply throughout the country, even in the most economically advanced areas. However, there are already 11 northern provinces that, like almost all southern provinces, record a higher number of pensions paid out than the payroll paid by entrepreneurs to their employees. These are: Sondrio (balance of -1,000), Gorizia (-2 thousand), Imperia (-4 thousand), La Spezia (-6 thousand), Vercelli (-8 thousand), Rovigo (-9 thousand), Savona (-12 thousand), Biella (-13 thousand), Alessandria (-13 thousand), Ferrara (-15 thousand) and Genoa (-20 thousand). All four provinces in Liguria show a result with a minus sign, while in Piedmont there are three out of eight. Of the 107 provinces in Italy monitored in this analysis by the CGIA Studies Office, only 47 present a positive balance: the only provinces in Southern Italy that record a difference anticipated by the plus sign are Cagliari (+10 thousand) and Ragusa (+9 thousand).