CGIL study: 'In 2030 it will take 128,000 more contributions to retire than in 2022'

The threshold needed to access early retirement increased rapidly between 2022 and 2025 and will rise again until 2030, making leaving before old age 'a mirage'. This is argued by the CGIL, explaining that using the severance pay to reach the threshold necessary for early retirement at 64 (an age that will be increased with the growth of life expectancy) 'is not the solution'. CGIL confederal secretary Lara Ghiglione cites data from an analysis by the national CGIL welfare office, which highlights the sharp increase in recent years.

In 2012, with the Monti-Fornero reform, the minimum required amount rose from €1,168.44 to €1,309.42 in 2022, with an overall increase of €140.98 in ten years, and then it will increase from 2022 onwards; in three years, Corso d'Italia calculates, the threshold amount has grown from €1,309.42 to €1,616.07, an increase of €306.65, more than double what happened in the entire previous decade. According to estimates, in 2030 the threshold will reach 1,811.78 euro, i.e. +502.36 euro compared to 2022.

"The real issue,' Ghiglione points out, 'is that of precariousness and wages: setting such a high threshold means making it impossible for the vast majority of Italian workers to leave at 64. Just do the calculations: with average or low wages the threshold cannot be reached even after 40 years of contributions and with the use of the severance pay fund'. The data 'speak for themselves: since this government has been in office,' explains Ezio Cigna, head of the Confederation's welfare policies, 'the threshold amount has grown disproportionately: in 2025 the threshold is 1,616.07 euro (+306.65 euro compared to 2022, +23%) and in 2030 it will reach 1,811.78 euro (+502.36 euro compared to 2022, +38%). This increase alone would require an additional contribution amount of more than €128,000: an unattainable goal for those with discontinuous careers and average or low salaries, which would require an additional salary of €388,953 in 2030'.

Even the use of the Tfr to be added to the accrued contributions in the face of these numbers for the CGIL 'would be ineffective'. "The majority of workers,' Cigna declares, 'cannot reach the threshold: with 8,000 euros per year of salary, after 40 years the estimated pension is only 505 euros per month; with 20,000 euros it reaches 1,263 euros; only those with high incomes exceed the requirements, while those who work all their lives with average salaries remain below the thresholds. Even with the average private sector salary of 23,700 euro per year, after 40 years the estimated pension is 1,496 euro, well below the threshold envisaged for 2030'. 'The severance pay,' Ghiglione continues, 'is deferred wages, an integral part of remuneration: using it in this way means undermining certain rights without resolving anything. The government had promised the overcoming of the Fornero law, but in fact it has not only zeroed out flexibility on exit, it has even aggravated a law that it continues to evoke only in slogans. Instead of eliminating impossible thresholds it has raised them, and now it wants to find solutions. We will continue to fight for a real social security reform that ensures fairness, social justice and a decent pension for all, building a guarantee pension for the youngest".