China and the US play for leadership in space

In addition to the military, China and the United States are vying for world technological leadership in space. Both want to get to the Moon first, a race with a far from foregone conclusion. On 3 September, during a hearing before the Senate, former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine, who was in office during Trump's first term, stated that it is highly unlikely that NASA will get to the Moon before China because of the complexity of the Artemis mission involving SpaceX with Starship, a choice made after he had left the leadership of the agency. Other experts echoed his misgivings by pointing out the American difficulties. In fact, Nasa's lunar landing depends on SpaceX, which, with the Starship programme, must provide the service of transferring the crew from lunar orbit, where they will arrive in the Orion capsule, to the ground, where the Starship spacecraft will act as a lunar base for the visitors, and then take off, bringing the astronauts back into orbit ready to transfer into the Orion capsule for the return journey.

This is not a simple architecture that demands complex performance from the launcher and the Starship capsule, which will have to be verified over the course of many test flights. On 26 August, in test launch number 10, the controlled return manoeuvres of the first stage (buster) were carried out, which was ditched in the Gulf of Mexico, or America as the case may be, where it landed vertically, Starlink satellite models were released, and finally the capsule landed vertically at a predetermined point in the Indian Ocean, where a buoy filmed everything. Soon we will see a full-scale landing demonstrating the reusability of the shuttle, which, thanks also to the recovery of the buster, aims to provide the first example of an entirely reusable launch system. If SpaceX succeeds, Starship could revolutionise the space industry, allowing larger and heavier payloads to be launched at a much lower cost than today, reinforcing Elon Musk's space monopoly.

To get to the Moon, however, Starship must also prove that it can refuel in orbit, a procedure that is trivial on Earth but complicated in microgravity since liquids do not flow. In fact, once in orbit, before leaving for the Moon or Mars, the shuttle must fill its tanks with liquid oxygen and methane carried by several additional Starship launches. SpaceX must therefore be able to launch several Starships in quick succession, which required the construction of a new launch pad in Florida.

SpaceX is behind schedule. The goals achieved in launch 10 should have been reached at the beginning of the year in launch 7, which ended with the shuttle exploding. A similar fate befell launches 8 and 9. These three failures imply a delay of at least six months that will be reflected in the Artemis III mission, intended to bring two astronauts to the lunar surface in the south pole region. Artemis III is currently scheduled for the end of 2027 but will almost certainly not be launched before 2028. This date has been confirmed by the current Acting Administrator of NASA Sean Duffy who is sure that the return to the Moon will take place before the end of the Trump presidency, in 2028. In any case, this is a date dangerously close to what China has announced for the moon landing of its taikonauts. While officially the Chinese human mission will take place by 2030, many believe that the feat is planned for 2029, the 80th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. Certainly, China is proceeding with its lunar programme, and the lunar landing module was recently successfully tested. A launcher from the Long March family, powerful but traditional, will be used. Certainly not as innovative as SpaceX's, but here we are talking about a state programme where the economic benefits of reuse take second place to the political-strategic timing.

In 1957, after the shock of Sputnik, Lyndon Johnson said 'first in space means first full stop'.