Declining population

China, the 430 euro bonus arrives for every child under the age of three

The measures will benefit more than 20 million families each year. A historic and necessary change from the one-child policy in force until 2015

Le cure a un bambino appena nato nell’ospedale di Taizhou, nella provincia cinese di Jiangsu

2' min read

2' min read

China will support the birth rate with an annual bonus of 3,600 yuan (about 430 euro) for each child under the age of three. The national plan was launched yesterday by Beijing after birth support measures - including tax breaks and subsidised services - had for years been managed by the various provinces. An epoch-making change, which necessarily follows the times, compared to the one-child policy that had been in force since 1980 until ten years ago.

The family subsidy - explains the official Xinhua news agency - will come into effect retroactively from 1 January this year and will be distributed for each child under three years of age, even in the same household. And regardless of income. The Chinese government expects that the incentive plan for young couples, who are concerned about the rising costs of child support, will benefit more than 20 million families each year. The plan represents 'an important national livelihood policy' and the direct cash subsidies will help 'reduce the costs of motherhood and parenthood', the National Health Commission said.

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China's population decreased in 2024 for the third year in a row: last year there were 9.54 million births against 10.93 million deaths. In 2016, when China eliminated the one-child policy, 18.8 million births had been registered in the country.

The falling birth rate is a concern for the world's second largest economy, which is also seeing its working-age population decline. China, which lost the title of most populous nation to India in 2023, now has 1.4 billion inhabitants, but could see its population fall further to 1.3 billion by 2050 and below 800 million by 2100, according to UN demographic models.

Indeed, in a country where children are born within marriage, marriages have plummeted by 20 per cent to 6.11 million in 2024, less than half of the 13.47 family unions recorded in 2013. Chinese people also marry at an older age: the average age of first marriage has risen from 24.9 years in 2010 to 28.7 years in 2020.

Citi Research estimates a total expenditure of about 117 billion yuan (equivalent to EUR 14 billion) in the second half of this year to carry out the plan. And it states that these measures are more significant as consumption support than as demographic policy. 'As a demographic policy, it remains to be seen whether the national programme will succeed in influencing the fertility rate,' the research institute said in a note.

In the next decade, China will have to meet the challenge of some 300 million people retiring. The plan to support families with children could offer more coordination and help keep the system resilient, said demographer Emma Zhang of Yale University. "Without structural investments in areas such as affordable childcare, parental leave and job protection for women, the effect on fertility is likely to remain minimal," she added.

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