Digital Economy

China is preparing controls on AI exports: what this means for businesses

This raises uncertainty for companies that have also installed a Chinese model such as Qwen or DeepSeek in Italia

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

An uncertainty now looms for companies that have also installed Chinese models such as Qwen or DeepSeek in Italia. Their access to future technologies originating in China is no longer guaranteed. It has now become a variable subject to the Chinese government’s political decisions.

The issue had been in the air for months, but it is now taking shape as an official proposal.

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On 16 October, the Chinese Ministries of Commerce and Science and Technology “put out for consultation” until 15 November export controls on 40 technologies. Twenty-three of these relate to artificial intelligence: large models, autonomous agents, computing infrastructure and information technologies. In total, 14 technologies would be banned from export and 26 would be subject to restrictions.

Of course, the proposal does not concern the use of models that have already been downloaded. Even future versions, if distributed with open source codes, should continue to circulate thanks to automatic and rapid authorisations. The main uncertainty centres on the new advanced technologies that Chinese manufacturers may decide to keep confidential: their transfer abroad could be prohibited or subject to authorisation. For companies that build products and services based on these models, this is a factor to consider for the continuity of innovation. The issue may be more widespread than one might think. Chinese models not only enable cost savings but, being open-source, can also be downloaded and customised by companies. This brings benefits in terms of corporate data security and the ability to tailor the technology more closely to their specific needs.

The “official clarifications”

We confirm that the and technologies already made public via open source or scientific publications are excluded. For new open-source releases of controlled technologies, automatic licences are provided for, with streamlined procedures. Beijing distinguishes between the transfer of technology to install systems abroad and access via APIs and cloud services, which are excluded from the proposed controls.

The case of Siemens is one of the most telling examples in this regard. The German group has “reported that it has built” an internal platform to utilise various models, including Qwen, DeepSeek and those from the European company Mistral. The infrastructure, managed by the group, allows employees to use different systems without necessarily having to transfer code and company information externally. The ability to switch models thus becomes an industrial requirement, as well as a technological one: if one family of models ceases to be updated or access conditions deteriorate, another can take its place. This flexibility requires investment in GPUs, software and skilled staff.

Being able to use an open-weight model such as the Chinese ones also affords greater flexibility in certain specific cases. In July, Hugging Face was breached by OpenAI agents that had escaped from an evaluation environment. The company has “reconstructed around 17,600 actions from the intrusion”. When analysing the commands, the Anthropic models – which are not open-source – initially rejected some of the requests, interpreting them as malicious activity. Hugging Face then installed GLM-5.2 locally – a model developed by the Chinese firm Z.ai – and was able to decipher the payloads and continue its investigation without transferring the incident data to an external provider.

The French company Mistral also has open-border models, such as the Mistral Large 3, but the most powerful ones now come from China.

Further evidence of the growing influence of geopolitics on business decisions comes from the US. On 20 October, Washington published in the “Federal Register” an order excluding DeepSeek products from procurement by civilian federal agencies and mandating their removal from IT systems, including certain third-party products based on its implementations. The measure applies to federal administrations, not the entire US private sector. However, together with the Chinese move, it demonstrates how the nationality of the manufacturer has now become a factor in technology policy, even when the software is open source.

Europe follows a different approach. The “AI Act” recognises the contribution of open models to research and competition and eases certain documentation requirements for providers who distribute genuinely open-source models, complete with appropriate licences and technical information. Brussels favours the openness of models, but it certainly cannot guarantee their future availability from abroad.

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Hosting a Chinese model on Italian or German servers can ensure that data is localised and provide more direct control over operations. However, data sovereignty does not equate to autonomy over the evolution of technology. If improvements, new priorities and key expertise remain concentrated abroad, part of the competitive advantage continues to depend on the choices made by other countries.

Businesses can reduce this exposure by designing applications compatible with multiple models, maintaining available versions and checking licences, computing requirements and replacement costs. For the EU, the challenge is broader: to invest in its own models, infrastructure and research capabilities, whilst supporting European manufacturers such as Mistral.

It is a long and complex process, but the latest news confirms how urgent it is for our businesses too.

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