Trade war

China, export rush slows. Slump towards the US

In May, Chinese exports grew at their lowest pace for three months, while exports to the US contracted by 34.5%.

by Marco Masciaga

Un terminal container nel porto di Shanghai

2' min read

2' min read

From our correspondent

NEW DELHI - Confirming the impact on global trade of the tariffs war unleashed by the United States, China's overall exports grew at their slowest pace in three months in May, largely due to a slump in exports to the US. At the same time, deflationary pressures increased, with producer prices registering their sharpest contraction in almost two years.

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China's exports to the rest of the world grew 4.8% year-on-year last month, down from 8.1% in April and below the 5% average forecast by a group of economists polled by Reuters news agency. Imports fell 3.4 percent year-on-year, a sharp deterioration from April's 0.2 percent drop. Expectations were for a much more modest contraction of less than 1 per cent.

Much of the decline in Chinese exports is attributable to tensions with the US: customs data show that exports from Beijing to the US fell 34.5% year-on-year, extending April's 21% drop. Flows from the US to China also fell further, down 18.1 percent from April's -13.8 percent.

'Export growth has probably been held back by customs controls, linked to export restrictions,' says Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, noting that exports of rare earths (which have become a negotiating weapon against the US) nearly halved last month, while exports of electrical machinery slowed significantly.

The 90-day negotiating truce agreed between Washington and Beijing was clearly not enough to limit the impact of the Trump administration's trade policies. Representatives of the world's two largest economies are meeting in London today to resume talks after a phone call between their leaders on Thursday.

China's May trade surplus stood at USD 103.22 billion, up from USD 96.18 billion in the previous month. Other data released on Monday showed a decline in imports of crude oil, coal and iron ore, underlining the fragility of domestic demand. Retail sales growth slowed in May.

Data on producer and consumer prices showed worsening deflationary pressures. The producer price index (PPI) fell 3.3% in May from a year ago (the steepest decline in 22 months) after a 2.7% drop in April. Consumer prices also continued to fall, albeit at a slower pace, dropping 0.1% year-on-year.

The core price index, which excludes volatile goods such as food and fuel, rose 0.6% year-on-year, slightly up from +0.5% in April. According to Zichun Huang of Capital Economics, the improvement in the core index appears 'fragile'. 'We continue to think,' he explains, 'that persistent overcapacity will keep China in deflation this year and next.

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