Recession Risk

The Asian giant

China, tariffs and the blockade of Hormuz undermine the trade surplus

In March, China showed a slowdown in exports (+2.5% year-on-year) offset by a sharp jump in imports (+27.8%)

by Rita Fatiguso

14 April 2026

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

The new picture
Import anomaly
The energy unknown

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

The record trade balance data of 2025 are likely to end up in the drawer of memories. The chaotic international environment shows that in March 2026 China showed a slowdown in exports (+2.5% year-on-year) offset by a sharp jump in imports (+27.8%). The trade surplus, which was expected to grow exponentially in 2025, has now fallen to USD 51.13 billion, with a significant drop in shipments to the US (-26.5%, or USD 29.4 billion). In January-February it had been $213.6 billion.

The new painting

China's trade balance averaged $18.80 billion from 1981 to 2026, reaching an all-time high of $213.62 billion in February 2026 and an all-time low of -$61.99 billion in February 2020. The new picture is underlined by the General Administration of Customs.

Triggered as early as 2025, however, the detachment from the US highlights persistent global trade frictions and the risk of possible new tariff tensions or tariffs.

Companies that used to frontload goods with the frontloading method to avoid increased US tariffs no longer have any room for manoeuvre. Offsets with other outlet markets no longer work as before either.

The growth of exports slowed down to +2.5% (USD 321.03 billion), below expectations (estimated at +8%). Import growth, on the other hand, amounted to 27.8% (equivalent to about USD 269.9 billion), exceeding expectations. A figure to be analysed that nevertheless bucks the trend of previous months.

The trade surplus is, as mentioned above, $51.13 billion, down from the previous months.

Cina, crescita del Pil a + 5% ma è la più bassa da vent'anni

Import anomaly

The general slowdown follows a very strong start to the year (January-February +21.8%), held back by lower shipments in low value-added sectors. But imports rose 27.8% in March after +19.8% in January-February, estimates were +7%.

Strong import growth may indicate an attempt to support the domestic market or an increase in raw material costs. Despite the slowdown in March, demand for green technology and components is expected to drag on the trade balance in the coming months. However, it risks being the last positive Chinese import-export figure in 2026,

the international context is not favourable to China, the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is another danger signal on the energy front, 80% of Iranian oil passing through there is destined for Beijing, and trade tensions between the US and China continue to rise, with threats of high cumulative tariffs on Chinese goods.

The energy unknown

China is still the largest global consumer of fossil fuels, which leads to a high volume of oil and gas imports weighing on the balance.

Energy is certainly a high cost item in trade liabilities, but China is still an overall net exporter.

China's strategy aims to reduce external dependence, relying on energy self-sufficiency to manage the trade balance impact. But energy, in particular the import of fossil fuels, represents a significant and structural component of China's energy deficit, yet still offset by a huge overall trade surplus (over USD 876 billion in 2022). China covers 79% of its needs, depending on foreign sources for the remainder, with coal still accounting for 58% of consumption.

Despite energy imports, China has maintained a steady trade surplus since 1995, with exports exceeding imports (307.85 billion). For green technologies, China has increased its trade influence by exporting green technologies (over USD 6.8 billion to the EU as of August 2025), offsetting energy costs.

Rita Fatiguso
Luogo: Milano
Argomenti: Cina, riforme cinesi, globalizzazione
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