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Chinese cars, countdown to EU duties. German manufacturers: 'They need to be rethought'

Brussels green light expected, but Europe is divided on measures: Germany pushes for negotiations

by Alberto Annicchiarico

Aggiornato il 4 luglio 2024, ore 10:00

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Negotiations started days after the announcement of the new European duties on Chinese electric cars, which added to the previous 10 per cent could reach up to 48 per cent. Today, three weeks later, the actual go-ahead for the measure is expected from the European Commission. The latest call for a rethink, or at least to soften the announced measures, came yesterday from the German car manufacturers' association (Vda). The duties, is the message, would harm Western manufacturers exporting from China. Not only that. The foreseeable price increase would jeopardise the European goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Finally, Beijing's retaliation would come.

German reliefs

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According to Vda, in 2023 the value of car exports from Germany to China was more than three times the value of imports from China, and the value of component suppliers' exports was four times the value of imports. The Commission, the German manufacturers argue, should instead focus on competitiveness and access to raw materials for electric vehicles.

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The duty policy divides German economists, according to an Ifo poll published yesterday. While a third of them believe it is an appropriate step to counter Chinese subsidies - estimated at $230 billion between 2009 and 2023 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank - another third would prefer no tariffs at all to avoid a trade war. 11% called for lower tariffs, while 6% favoured higher tariffs.

European positions and Beijing's wishes

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In fact, Europe too, and this is not news, is divided. Germany, clearly first for all exports to China (97.3 billion in 2023), is pushing for negotiations. Even Italy is more inclined to mediate. France and Spain are in favour of stronger measures. The Czech Republic, Greece, Ireland and Poland are still debating the issue, according to official and government sources, while Belgium has an interim government and the Netherlands only formed a government this week. The duties, which should be finalised in November, would be blocked if a 'qualified majority' of at least 15 countries, representing 65% of the EU population, voted against.

The Commission says that the aim of the tariff tightening is to create a level playing field, not to exclude the dragonese car manufacturers (today at 6% of the market, less than 20 billion euro, eighth largest item among imported goods to Europe). This could theoretically be the effect of the customs tariffs of more than 100 per cent envisaged by the US and which the Chinese are preparing to circumvent, moreover, by going to produce batteries and car parts in Morocco, a country that enjoys a free trade agreement with the US.

But in the Europarliament, the largest political family, the EPP, while reaffirming its support for the EU's binding targets to reduce greenhouse gases by 55 per cent within this decade compared to 1990 levels and to achieve climate neutrality by mid-century, insists on making room for thermal engines powered by synthetic or e-fuels (low-emission) even after 2035. The latter is the deadline set in February 2023 for stopping the production of conventional engines.

Meanwhile, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced this morning that several consultations had been held at a technical level between China and the EU on tariffs for electric vehicles. China 'hopes that the EU will work with China in the same direction on the issue,' said ministry spokesman He Yadong.

Not only cars, also wind turbines

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The tension is palpable and can also be felt in other sectors. Just yesterday, the European wind turbine industry harshly criticised the agreement between the German asset manager Luxcara and the Chinese Ming Yang, which was supposed to supply 16 turbines with a capacity of up to 18.5 MW, installation scheduled for 2028. Luxcara said it signed the deal after an international tender and due diligence on the supply chain. But this was not enough to avoid a clash. The Berlin government will review the project. Not only that. The German government has also blocked the sale of Man Energy Solutions, the gas turbine manufacturer controlled by Volkswagen, to China. For the ministry, the potential buyer not only belongs to a state-owned shipyard group, but also has links to the Chinese military.

Competitiveness

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Returning to cars, the Chinese advantage in cost competitiveness cannot be underestimated: it is around 35 per cent according to the global consultancy AlixPartners. This factor could allow some players - waiting to set up production facilities, as BYD and Chery are doing - to absorb the impact of European duties and remain competitive. 'The march of Chinese electric vehicle brands in Europe will continue,' commented Lei Xing, founder of the consultancy AutoXing. 'It is like going from 80 to 60 km/h or even less, but without stopping.

The Indonesia case (with textiles)

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Europe is not alone. Southeast Asia's largest economy, Indonesia, is preparing to impose tariffs and take other measures to protect its textile industry from imports from China. Indonesia has maintained an overall trade surplus for the past four years. However, the surplus with China turned into a deficit in May. Tariffs, again, would be a tricky choice: Beijing is the main source of imports and the biggest customer for Indonesian exports.

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