Industry

Electric cars, Chinese boom in September. In Europe, factories at risk

Export of made-in-China electric vehicles doubles. Meanwhile, in the EU there is alarm: plants are working at 55% of capacity, with heavy repercussions on profitability

by Alberto Annicchiarico

Logo BYD in una concessionaria spagnola, vicino Barcellona. Il produttore di Shenzhen guarda alla Spagna come possibile sede della terza fabbrica europea. REUTERS/ Albert Gea

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

China doubled its exports of electric cars and plug-in hybrids in September, while Byd, the Shenzhen giant now leading the sector, is looking to the UK as its first market outside its borders. In parallel, the company is intensifying contacts with Madrid, which is confirmed as the most likely destination for its third European factory. Spain, with its competitive industrial network, low production costs and cheap energy, is now the most attractive country for investment in the electric car industry.

According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (Caam), exports ofNev, New energy vehicles (a category that includes battery-powered cars and plug-in hybrids), grew by 100% in September compared to the same month in 2024, reaching 222,000 units. This volume was only slightly lower than the 224,000 vehicles exported in August. Overall, domestic sales of passenger cars in China rose by 11.2% year-on-year, confirming a buoyant domestic market, albeit slower than the +15% recorded the previous month. Many buyers took advantage of expiring trade-in bonuses and the upgrade to an electrified vehicle.

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United Kingdom Byd's first market outside China

The giant founded in 1995 by chairman and CEO Wang Chuanfu has also gained a dominant position in international markets, although just over a month ago it had to revise its sales estimates for the year. Sales in the UK rose 880% year-on-year in September, making London the group's main sales outlet outside China. In Europe, Byd increased registrations by 280% in the first eight months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, thanks to a range combining full electric and plug-in hybrid models, positioned with an aggressive pricing policy compared to Western competitors.

Byd, new rumours (denied) about Spain. Here's why Madrid is attractive

The group's strategy seems clear: to produce all the vehicles destined for the European market directly on the continent within three years, in order to circumvent tariffs and protectionist measures. After the factory under construction in Hungary and the new plant planned in Turkey, expected for 2026, rumours are periodically repeated that Byd considers Spain to be the main candidate for its third European production site. The Chinese group, however, replies by saying that these are 'unsubstantiated news'. At this stage, according to internal sources, 'they are all focused on starting with the first two European plants, in Hungary and Turkey (considered as such because there is an EU-Turkey customs union agreement in force since 1995), the rest is all speculation.

It is true that Spanish automotive projects have a head start, thanks to the mix of low energy costs, modern infrastructure and a favourable political-industrial context. Madrid has put in place a 5 billion euro plan financed with European funds to attract investment in the battery and electric vehicle sector, attracting giants such as Volkswagen, Stellantis (with the Chinese Leapmotor), Chery and the world number one in batteries, Catl (in partnership with Stellantis itself).

A possible final decision would confirm Byd's progressive global projection, which in 2024 invested more abroad than on the domestic market, a phenomenon not seen since 2014. Also contributing to this direction are the progressive saturation of the domestic market and the price war that has eroded the profit margins of Chinese manufacturers, forcing them to seek growth beyond their borders.

Europe produces too little. What risks?

And while China doubled its exports in September, Europe is facing a crisis in production capacity in the face of effectively flat demand. According to the global consulting firm AlixPartners, European plants are currently working at 50-55% of their capacity (35% in Italy), with heavy repercussions on profitability. In Europe, production is 20-24% less than pre-Covid. In Italy, it is even -50%. Unsustainable levels for the industry, which is used to operating with saturation rates of around 70-75%. Competition from brands such as Byd and MG (Saic group) could cost Old Continent manufacturers up to two million fewer vehicles in the next few years, bringing the Chinese share of the European market to 5% already by 2025 and potentially 10% by 2030.

The rumours about plant closures for the time being break against a political and social taboo. In Germany, where workers' representatives sit on supervisory boards, attempts to reduce production capacity meet with strong resistance. However, under these conditions, according to the experts at AlixPartners, downsizing, plant closures, disinvestments or industrial reconversions are to be expected.

In this context, China's advance, supported by lower costs and an integrated domestic supply chain, represents a structural challenge for the European automotive industry, which is engaged in the thwarted transition to electrics. Spain, with its mix of incentives, stability and production capacity, seems today to be the ideal terrain to attract new investments.

If Byd confirms its decision to build its third European plant on the Iberian peninsula, it will be a strong signal: the epicentre of the global electric automotive industry is shifting, and China, more than a volume supplier, is bidding to become an industrial player in the heart of Europe.

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