Cigarettes, increases of up to EUR 2 per pack under the Danish proposal

Europe is not giving up its grip on tobacco and in particular on the increased revenue that could come from increased taxation on all smoking products on the market today. This is certified by the new Danish-style sting that will be discussed at the Working Party on Tax Questions on 4 December. The revision of the Tobacco Excise Directive (so-called Ted), supported by the Danish EU Council Presidency, is even heavier than the initial proposal. The draft prepared by the European Commission in July 2025 already presented smokers and manufacturers with increases of up to 20% in consumer prices, with price increases on cigarettes of 139% or 258% for cut tobacco and up to almost 1000% for cigars.

But in spite of the many criticisms it has received, concentrated above all on the concrete risk of job losses, penalisation of less harmful alternatives to smoking and an almost certain increase in smuggling, the Commission does not seem to want to stop. Nor has the outcome of the public consultation that followed the presentation of the draft directive been sufficient. Since that consultation, in fact, 92% of the 17,000 European citizens - including 3,000 Italians - have opposed price increases considered punitive on all smoking products.

The new Danish version, as mentioned, is even worse and for smokers would foreshadow, if approved, an even heavier sting with increases of 132% compared to the initial proposal for heated tobacco, amounting to almost EUR 2 per packet up to a 1,000% increase for nicotine sachets, just to give a few examples. On non-combustion products, then, the taxation increase would be higher than on some traditional tobaccos. The minimum level of taxation foreseen for innovative smokeless products would be EUR 360 per kg, compared to a significantly lower taxation of EUR 215 per kg for smokeless tobacco.

Countries such as Italy, Greece, Sweden and Bulgaria have already expressed their opposition on several occasions to the idea that the increased tax revenue from these price increases would not end up in the coffers of the nation states but instead in those of the European Commission. According to some estimates circulated so far, this would amount to around EUR 15 billion.

The Danish proposal would also end up damaging the entire tobacco supply chain, which is supported in Italy with massive investments in innovative products, putting thousands of jobs among farmers and industries at risk. Not only that. Only the illegal market would benefit. With increases of almost EUR 2 per packet, consumers would inevitably be pushed towards smuggling sales. Lastly, the other paradox of the Danish proposal - some technicians point out - by equating less harmful products with combustion products would end up blocking that process of innovation that all manufacturers have put in place in recent years to reduce smoking damage as much as possible.