Victory in cities strengthens the alliance between the Pd and M5s, but the centre-right remains strong in small municipalities

"From Florence to Bari, from Campobasso to Perugia, from Potenza to Cagliari. It is irrevocable: the cities have rejected the governing right and sent a clear message to Giorgia Meloni. No more cuts to healthcare, no more low wages and no more differentiated autonomy'.

After the 24% of the European elections and the 10 capital cities won in the first round, the party continues at the Nazareno and PD secretary Elly Schlein strikes while the iron is hot. In fact, all six regional capitals on the ballot are now centre-left-led. The Dems and the allies of the progressive camp have wrested three regional capitals from the right: Perugia, Potenza and Vibo, in addition to Cagliari, already conquered a fortnight ago, and Campobasso, which was led by the M5s. And they confirm with clear-cut victories Florence and Bari, where even the so-called wide field (Pd plus M5s) had presented itself divided in the first round, with unequivocal percentages: Vito Leccese is mayor of Bari with over 70%, Sara Funaro is first citizen of Florence with over 60%. Looking at the ballots in all 14 provincial capitals on the ballot, the centre-left beat the right 7 to 5. Ecounting all the 29 provincial capitals at the ballot between the first and second seats, the game ends 17 to 10 for the centre-left (starting from 13 to 12).

Certainly the victory in the regional capitals can be a good viaticum for the PD and its allies in view of the upcoming regional elections in Emilia Romagna, called to vote for the election of the governor Stefano Bonaccini to the Strasbourg Parliament, and in Umbria, where the centre-left's victory in Perugia raises hopes for the possibility of wresting the region's leadership from the centre-right. But in Schlein's enthusiasm there is the risk of an optical distortion: the European vote, in You-Trend's analysis, has confirmed that Pd and Avs are very "urban" political forces, while "the three centre-right parties are confirmed to be decidedly more rooted in small municipalities". Especially for Fdi and Lega the trend is marked: 32.5% and 12.5% respectively in small municipalities compared to 23% and 5% in large cities. In short, if it is true that from the point of view of the PD and the centre-left 'the air in the city makes you free', as the outgoing EU commissioner Paolo Gentiloni emphasises, it is also true that victory in urban centres is not enough to win throughout the country and return to government.

In any case, there is no doubt that the ballots confirm the self-evident fact that the current oppositions have a chance of winning where they unite (in the case of the municipalities, if not in the first then in the second round). A 'lesson' that the M5s leadership tends to emphasise in order to curb the temptation of a return to isolationist origins also ventilated by the Guarantor Beppe Grillo after the flop at the European elections (9.9%): "The citizens reward the projects of agreement between the opposition forces, the result not of palace alchemy but of a convergence that is being consolidated in parliamentary halls as much as in the squares. This is a fact that comforts and encourages us to continue, while respecting diversity and different identities, to work to build an alternative to the Meloni government,' Giuseppe Conte is quick to say. Whose internal position within the movement thus emerges strengthened by the ballots.

As for the centre-right, the ballot result only strengthens the historic aversion - especially of the League but also of Fratelli d'Italia - to electoral mechanisms that provide for a second round if no one reaches 50 per cent. "Beyond the results of the second round, of who won and who lost, a fact emerges that should make us reflect: the double round is not salvific and actually increases abstention,' is the comment of Senate President Ignazio la Russa, of Fdi. 'From 62.83% in the first round, we have fallen far below 50%, that is, to 47.71%. In some cases, one is elected with only 20% of the votes of those eligible. Sometimes, those who have fewer absolute votes than their opponent in the first round are even elected. Unacceptable. We need to rethink electoral law for administrative elections'. The centre-right had already tried to include an amendment in the Ddl Provinces to lower the threshold below which the runoff would be triggered from 50% to 40%, but it had given up, partly because of the vehement protest of all the centre-left mayors. It is to be believed that the issue will soon reopen in Parliament.