The study

Climate, by 2100 increase in extreme events and temperatures. Decline in precipitation

This is the result of an ENEA study that used very high resolution regional climate projections

by Davide Madeddu

26 December 2025

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

Study 2015 to 2100
Rise in temperatures
More powerful technologies

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

The horizon is not exactly rosy: because by the end of the century, Italy and the Mediterranean basin will increase temperatures and decrease precipitation. Moreover, the frequency of extreme events with intense thunderstorms and flash floods is expected to increase, especially during the autumn season in the Alps. This is what emerges from a study by Enea.

"We have used very high resolution regional climate projections (up to 5 kilometres), which like a magnifying glass," explains Maria Vittoria Struglia, researcher at ENEA's Climate Models and Services Laboratory and coordinator of the study, "have allowed us to know with extreme precision the impacts expected by 2100, especially in relation to extreme events and local phenomena.

Study 2015 to 2100

The team of researchers carried out simulations both for the past climate, the period from 1980 to 2014, "useful for quantifying the variations already taking place", and for the future climate, i.e. from 2015 to 2100, "using three socio-economic and climate reference scenarios". "The scenarios range from those in which environmental sustainability policies are implemented to those in which decarbonisation policies are not central to development models," argue Enea. On the basis of these projections, the effects of climate change on surface temperature and precipitation in Italy have been estimated".

Rise in temperatures

Result? According to the study, temperatures in mountainous areas are expected to rise in summer with peaks of up to +4.5 degrees Celsius and up to +3.5 degrees Celsius in autumn in the highest impact scenario. 'This is a significant warming that,' continue Enea, 'is not reproduced by low-resolution global models in these areas'.

Then there is the rainfall front where the climate 'will tend to become generally drier in all seasons, particularly during the summer'. However, 'in the two most critical scenarios, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events is expected, especially over northern Italy and, in particular, in the Alpine and sub-Alpine areas'.

At the end of the century, in the period between 2071 and 2100 in "winter there could be an increase in the intensity of precipitation, especially in the Western Alps, in contrast to the Eastern Alps where there is a slight decrease; while in southern Italy the intensity will decrease, with a particularly marked decrease in the main mountains of Sicily". In spring, the picture is similar to that of winter, but with a more widespread increase in intensity over the entire Alpine arc. In summer, there is a general decrease in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially along the Tyrrhenian coasts. Finally, in autumn, in the most severe scenario, there is a significant increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall over most of Italy, with more marked increases in areas where the expected climate impacts are already more intense, such as Northern Italy.

More powerful technologies

"In recent years, the development of increasingly powerful technologies has made possible much more detailed regional climate projections that have made it possible to assess the local impacts of climate change and climate-related risks, as well as to support adaptation and mitigation policies," concludes the study coordinator. "This represents a significant advance for the Mediterranean region, a climate hotspot characterised by a highly heterogeneous morphology that requires high-resolution analyses.