CO2, 50% cut in cities by 2050 needs 271 billion

An investment package of more than 27o billion euro by 2050 to enable the decarbonisation process and the improvement of efficiency and quality of life in Italian cities, activating a series of levers already available today and halving emissions in cities. This is the scenario that emerges from the study 'Urban Sustainability. Decarbonisation, electrification and innovation: opportunities and solutions for future-fit cities", carried out by the Teha Group with A2A and the scientific contribution of ASviS (Italian Alliance for Sustainable Development), presented on 6 September at the Cernobbio Forum by Roberto Tasca, chairman of A2A, Renato Mazzoncini, managing director and CEO of the company, and Lorenzo Tavazzi, senior partner and board member of Teha, with the intervention of Enrico Giovannini, co-founder and scientific director of ASviS.

Why the bet on cities? Because, on the one hand, the future will be irrevocably urban: the forecast is that by 2050 around 70% of the world's population will live in cities. In Italy from the current 72.6% it is estimated that this will rise to 81.1%, a trend that could lead to an 18% increase in emissions from Italian centres. On the other hand, cities are confirmed as catalysts for innovation and sustainability: in our country, in the 112 capital municipalities covered by the study - covering 7% of the national surface area - 30% of the population lives, 60% of GDP is generated, and 29% of the total energy is consumed. Thus 'density' economies are produced: less heat consumption (-21% per unit area) than in the rest of the country, more users connected per km to the electricity grid (by almost 5 times) and gas and water (by 3 times), more public transport (+47%), more cycle paths (+52%).

The challenge is to build on these intrinsic efficiencies for a further leap: greater sustainability and quality of life at the same time. There are already virtuous cities in this sense, and the study lists them: Milan, Brescia, Messina, Bergamo, Varese, Cremona, Cosenza. They all have in common actions and good performance in the areas indicated as 'technological and service levers' that represent the most efficient existing solutions, in terms of cost-benefit, for decarbonisation and for which industrial operators can act as enablers and partners as well as direct investors. These actions include the installation of photovoltaic panels on roofs, the electrification of transport, the spread of electric heat pumps, the growth of district heating, the optimisation of water and waste management services, the replacement of lighting points with LED lighting, the development of urban green areas, with the addition of the necessary upgrading of the electricity grid.

The assumed investment of 10 billion per year up to 2050 in these sectors, totalling some 271 billion when all interventions are added up, would lead to a 52% cut in city emissions from the current 62 million tonnes of CO2 to 30. It would also raise the weight of renewables, electricity and derived heat in the consumption mix by 20%, now at 31%. The redevelopment of buildings, which the study estimates would require further investments of around EUR 360 billion, again by 2050, would lead to savings of a further 5.1 million tonnes of CO2.

Most of the economic commitment is expected to be directed towards private transport: around EUR 165 billion, corresponding to the electrification of cars. Among the direct investments of operators i