Coface: Italian exports hold up but in 2025 the spectre of tariffs advances

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - In 2024, Italian exports are holding up despite international tensions, but must prepare to face new challenges in 2025, particularly US tariffs and weak European demand. This is highlighted in the report "Italian exports, the risks and opportunities", produced by Coface, one of the world leaders in credit insurance and trade risk management. In 2024, Italian exports remained substantially the same, standing at 623.5 billion euros with a minimal change (-0.4%) compared to the previous year. However, the resilience of exports hides a picture of lights and shadows: on the one hand, the collapse of the automobile sector (-12.2%) and the difficulties of textiles-clothing (-4.5%) and metals (-3.3%); on the other hand, the excellent performance of food (+9.5%), pharmaceuticals (+7.9%) and jewellery (+12.4%).

On the geographical front, the slowdown in the main outlet markets (Germany, France and the USA) is worrying, only partly offset by growth in secondary markets, with the emblematic case of Turkey entering the top 10 thanks to the boom in jewellery exports. On the horizon for 2025 looms the spectre of American tariffs, which could hit strategic sectors for Made in Italy, in a context of a possible further weakening of European demand.

Italian exports were affected by the slowdown in demand from the main trading partners: the European Union (which absorbs more than half of Italian exports), the United States and China. Within the EU, of particular concern was the contraction towards Germany (-5.0%) and France (-3.6%), respectively the first and third largest markets, with significant drops in sales of vehicles, steel and iron. These negative performances were, however, offset by the growth of exports to Spain (+4.5%), the UK (+5.3%) and the Netherlands (+4.3%), supported mainly by the increase in sales of pharmaceuticals. The case of Turkey stands out, which with a leap of 23.9% became one of Italy's top ten trading partners in 2024, thanks to a fivefold increase in jewellery exports. In contrast, China slipped from 11th place, mainly due to a decline in sales of pharmaceuticals in the first quarter of 2024, after an exceptional peak in early 2023.

The outlook for 2025 is fraught with unknowns, Coface points out in the report, explaining that, on the one hand, European economic growth appears limited, with persistent difficulties in the manufacturing and construction sectors, particularly in France and Germany, reference markets for Italian exports. On the other, US trade policy represents a significant risk factor, with the potential introduction or extension of tariffs and trade barriers.Italy is one of the European countries most vulnerable to possible US protectionist measures: particularly exposed sectors include machinery (12.2% of exports to the US), pharmaceuticals (16.8%), automotive (12.5%, with peaks of 16.9% for vehicles), wines and beverages (21.7%), ceramic products and building stones (13% for non-metallic minerals), furniture (12.2%), footwear and leather goods (11%). In addition to direct impacts, indirect impacts on integrated supply chains with partners such as Germany have to be considered. In this complex scenario,it becomes strategic for Italian companies to diversify their outlet markets, exploring the opportunities offered by high-potential emerging economies in the Gulf countries and Asia.

"In this scenario, Coface confirms itself as a strategic partner for companies operating in international markets," emphasises Pietro Vargiu, Country Manager Coface Italy. "As a world player of reference in credit risk management, we offer an ecosystem of solutions from credit insurance to business information and debt collection, to develop business safely both in the domestic market and abroad.