Coface: ‘Made in Italy’ stands firm in the face of trade wars and instability

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - In 2025, Italian exports reached a value of 643.2 billion euros, up 3.3% on 2024. Despite a 3.2% rise in imports, Italia recorded a trade surplus of around 51 billion euros, up 5% on the previous year. However, “2026 is set to remain challenging due to weak growth among Italy’s main European partners, ongoing trade tensions and renewed geopolitical uncertainty, with the conflict in the Middle East driving up energy prices and those of certain raw materials”. This is the picture that emerges from the report “Italian Exports: Navigating Trade Wars and International Tensions”, produced by Coface.

“Despite a complex and risky international environment, Italian exporting companies are still proving to be resilient and capable of adapting to circumstances. However, the results do not benefit everyone equally,” comments Pietro Vargiu, country manager at Coface Italia. “The successes of certain industries are offsetting the difficulties faced by other key sectors of ‘Made in Italy’, whilst the recovery in some traditional export markets is already being jeopardised by forecasts of limited economic growth. The situation remains highly volatile, but it may also offer new opportunities for business and diversification.”

Confirming a trend that had already emerged in the first half of 2025, the pharmaceutical sector made a significant contribution to overall export growth for the year as a whole. The pharmaceutical sector recorded annual growth of 28.5 per cent, thanks to sales in the United States (+10 percentage points), followed by France (+6 pp) and Spain (+5 pp). Metals, food and transport equipment also recorded significant growth rates (9.8 per cent, 4.3 per cent and 4.1 per cent respectively). Metals benefited from gold exports to Switzerland, whilst the performance of transport was linked to shipbuilding, in particular the delivery of cruise ships in the first and third quarters of the year: a sector with excellent prospects for the coming years as well. The automotive sector remains in difficulty due to weak demand and falling sales, particularly in the United States. Exports of textiles, clothing and footwear fell (-1.9%), whilst machinery, electrical equipment and rubber and plastic products remained broadly stable.

Exports to Italia’s main trading partners – the United States, the European Union and Switzerland – are on the rise again, having experienced a slowdown in trade flows from Italia in 2024. However, not all sectors are benefiting equally. The growth in exports to France (+5.3%), Spain (+10.6%) and the United States (+7.2%) is driven by demand for pharmaceutical products, whilst the increase to Germany (+2.4%) is linked primarily to cruise ships. The significant reduction in exports to China (particularly machinery, clothing and leather goods) is a cause for concern, given the potential of this market.

This year, the European Union and India concluded negotiations on a free trade agreement. Further steps are required before it comes into force, but ratification appears less prone to the risks and challenges that characterised the EU–Mercosur agreement. With a population of over 1.4 million, India is a market with significant potential. Whilst taking into account the inevitable technical delays, the agreement opens up growth prospects for various European manufacturing sectors: from pharmaceuticals to the automotive industry, from machinery to agri-food. This is certainly good news – the report highlights – for those wishing to explore new opportunities for diversification, in such a challenging global context. Instability in the Middle East and the effects of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have put pressure on global markets and supply chains. Italia is vulnerable not only in terms of energy supplies (10 per cent of its total natural gas imports come from Qatar) but also in terms of trade flows: the Gulf countries – with their investment programmes and a market of high-income consumers – represent a strategic region for various export sectors: machinery, jewellery, textiles and clothing, electrical machinery, metals, food and pharmaceuticals. In 2025, the Gulf countries accounted for 14 per cent of total exports of valves and taps. The tensions arising from the conflict are having a direct impact on demand (due to the consequences of the suspension of various projects) and an indirect impact through rising costs.